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The Countdown

A bottom-to-top assessment of the F.B.S. landscape heading into the 2012 season.

A Retrospective

The Year in Review: Northwestern (6-7, 3-5)

I have great news. I’m a finalist for the position of athletic director at [insert university here]. Qualifications? None. Don’t tell anyone; my resume contained quite a few inaccuracies, including one reference to my turn as a three-time all-conference pick at [insert invented New England liberal arts college here]. But I aced the first round of the interview process with [insert university president here] and [insert deep-pocketed booster here], thanks to a flashy new suit, a strong presentation and pure, old-fashioned confidence. Not to mention my prime selling point: I can make the football program at [university] a national power.

I didn’t lie. I didn’t say it would be easy. For starters, the academic standards at [university] are incredibly high. [University] accepted less than a quarter of its applicants a year ago, and [president] did inform me that the athletic department will not be allowed to bend the rules in the same way as [insert national power here] does to get academically-questionable students past the admissions board.

In addition, the football program I would inherit, should I be hired, is universally regarded as one of the nation’s worst. At the very least, the football program is viewed as a punch line — remember the time [university] lost by [insert large amount here] to [national power]? But the school wants a winner. The primary reason I was brought back for a second interview, in fact, is because I told them I could get the best football coach in America.

“You can get us Nick Saban?” [president] asks, getting right to the point as we begin our second interview. I know of Nick Saban, I reply, but he’s not leaving Alabama. And he’s not leaving Alabama for the sort of stacked deck that would await him at [university], especially since [university] couldn’t come close to reaching his contractual demands.

“Oh, you mean Urban Meyer?” He’s a great coach, I tell [booster], but he’s not quite the right fit. He’s won at some non-traditional spots, but [university’s] chance at hiring Meyer went out the window a decade ago. Maybe after Bowling Green, or his first season at Utah. Now? He wouldn’t even return the call.

“Chip Kelly!”

“Les Miles?”

“Don’t tell me: Bob Stoops.”

[President] and [booster] are eating out of the palm of my hand. An administrator walks in: “[President], before you proceed, I did want to say I found a number of inaccuracies when going over…” He’s cut off, dismissed with a wave. What’s [number higher than five] inaccuracies when I’m about to name the coach who can save [university] from being a perennial football afterthought?

I list the coach’s qualifications. He owns the highest winning percentage at [insert name of his current school here] since college football’s modern era, beginning in 1936. He’s led [current school] to four bowl games, the most of any coach in program history. He’s the only coach of the modern era at [current school] to post three straight winning seasons.

He’s won despite facing the same strident academic standards that are in place at [university]. He recruits nationally, knowing that it takes such an effort to bring in the sort of talent that can fit the bill at [current school]. Despite being only [his age], he’s already viewed as one of the most respected voices in all of college football. When he talks, people listen.

I name the coach. Silence. I’ve found their guy — the coach who can win at [university]. Now, he’s not a big name, I tell [president] and [booster], but I’m telling you, this guy will transform [university’s] football program into something special. The [university] would be lauded for having the foresight to look beyond the B.C.S. to find the right man for the job. So I may have stretched when I said the best coach in America; he’s simply the best coach at an academically-focused university with little resources and only the smallest sliver of past success.

[Booster] breaks the silence: “[Insert coach’s name here]? [Coach’s name]!” The exclamation point worries me. “That’s your calling card? He’ll never leave [current school]! Why would you think you could get him to leave [current school] for [university]?” I’m stunned. But… he’s [coach’s name]! Surely you’re at least impressed with my careful and diligent research, right?

I look towards [president] for support. None is coming. “Let me tell you something,” says [president]. “When I was the assistant provost at [national power], we threw out all the stops to get [coach’s name]. We offered money. Years. The sort of academic leeway only a national power like [national power] can offer. Know what he said? ‘I’m flattered, but I’m happy at [current school].’ He didn’t even interview!”

This isn’t going well. “[Insert second national power here] wanted him. [Insert third national power here] wanted him. [Second national power] wanted him! [Second national power]! And you think he’s going to come to [university]?”

Well, I’m not going to get this job. I’ve made the same mistake countless other athletic directors have made over the last five years: I thought I could get [coach's name] to leave [current school]. I should have known better.

Season grade: B There was a time — and this is still somewhat hard to believe — that I furthered the idea of putting a medical redshirt on Dan Persa, aiming to get a sixth year for Northwestern’s starting quarterback, and handing the starting job over to Kain Colter for all of 2011. The idea might have held some merit in early September, when Colter played well in leading Northwestern out of the gate with two straight wins. The idea stopped holding water once the Wildcats lost to Army, a game that found Colter on the bench as the offense looked for a spark in the fourth quarter. Persa returned a week later and played at his normal level, but the Wildcats never seemed to recover from the loss to Army or a narrow setback at Illinois a week later. While the team recovered in time to post a tremendous win at Nebraska, Northwestern did fail to reach its preseason expectations. But a bowl bid is a bowl bid: Pat Fitzgerald has now led the Wildcats to five straight non-losing seasons. That remains an amazing feat.

High point The 28-25 win in Lincoln on the first Saturday of November. The Wildcats were sparked by Colter, who replaced an injured Persa and gave the Cornhuskers fits with his dual-threat ability. That was Northwestern’s lone win on the season against a bowl team; the four remaining victories over F.B.S. competition came against teams that combined for 13 wins on the year.

Low point A string of close-but-no-cigar losses in September and October. Army by a touchdown. Illinois by a field goal. Michigan, the lone outlier, came by 18 points. Iowa by 11 points. Penn State by a touchdown. A disappointing stretch for a team that could have been pesky in the Legends division.

Offensive M.V.P. My heart says Persa, who fought back from last season’s Achilles injury to start the final nine games of his college career. While it took him some time to recover his form, the Persa we saw over Northwestern’s four-game winning streak over the second half of the year was vintage. Regardless of who was under center, either Colter or Persa, wide receiver Jeremy Ebert delivered: he topped his junior totals with 75 receptions for 1,060 yards and 11 scores. Over a two-week span against Nebraska and Rice, Ebert made 13 catches for 355 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Defensive M.V.P. Northwestern had two safeties: one old, one young. The first, Brian Peters, an honorable mention all-Big Ten pick, led the Wildcats with five interceptions. That gave him 12 for his career; in addition, Peters finished first or second on the team in picks in each of his final three seasons. Peters’ running mate at safety was redshirt freshman Ibraheim Campbell, who had a team-best 100 tackles to go with his three interceptions. What was Northwestern’s biggest issue defensively? If I told you it was a lack of a pass rush, would you be surprised? I doubt it: Northwestern made only 17 sacks all season, the fewest in the Big Ten.

Stock watch It’ll be Colter’s show come the fall. Here’s guessing he’s ready. One thing we know: Colter is going to add another dimension to the running game. And when it comes to Northwestern’s running game, the Wildcats can use all the dimensions they can get. Can he reach Persa-like accuracy and consistency in the passing game? Probably not. Of bigger concern to the Wildcats, however, is the play of a defense that held only one F.B.S. opponent, Rice, under 379 yards of total offense. Improvement will come in 2012: Northwestern loses only three seniors off last year’s defense, and were starting five freshmen or sophomores by the time it took on Texas A&M in bowl play. The Wildcats will return to bowl play in 2012; whether the Wildcats make a run to eight or nine wins depends more on the defense than it does on Colter’s turn as the full-time starter.

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Comments

  1. Adam Nettina says:

    Are there bigger combine snubs than Persa and Ebert right now? It’ll be interested to see if Trumpey can get healthy and stay healthy next year. I really think he shown like he can be the back they’ve been looking for since Sutton, IF he can stay healthy.

  2. SMD says:

    Lots of sugarcoating here. If Pat Fitzgerald wasn’t a player on the 1995 team he’d be on the hotseat this season. Three straight declining years (9-4, 8-5, 7-6, 6-7), no bowl wins, and he’s gotten a creampuff schedule (one out of conference opponent in his *entire tenure* has won more than for games; that team went 6-5 in the WAC in 2006).

    They lose every playmaker from the defense this season (six starters, not three). When Fitzgerald tried to “go young” towards the end of the season it was a disaster, especially in the secondary. No Peters or Dinardo on the line, no McNaul or Mabin in the secondary. Those are huge losses for a team that doesn’t have a lot of talent to spare. And the offense also loses six starters, including the QB (Heisman caliber QB!) and Ebert. 2012 was always going to be a rebuilding year, which made 2011 all the more disappointing.

    Starting next season NU plays three BCS teams a year out of conference each of the next three years. The easy bowl eligibility schedules are disappearing. The Wildcats replace Indiana and Penn State with Wisconsin and Ohio State in 2013. Even if they improve next year or 2013, the treadmill is speeding up; they’ll have to improve just to stay a 6-6 team (not to mention that might not be good enough for bowl eligibility anymore). And in 2014, this is the schedule for the final seven weeks:

    Wisconsin
    @Ohio State
    @Michigan State
    Iowa
    @Notre Dame
    @Michigan
    Illinois

    I’m calling my shot now: Pat Fitzgerald will not make 2015 as head coach of the Wildcats. He’ll either get out before it turns south, or he will be fired.

  3. calmer than you are says:

    Unfortunately, 6-7 counts as a losing season, snapping that streak. It was disappointing because the defense once again was about as terrible (roughly bottom 25 nationally) as the offense was good (roughly top 25 nationally). The Cats aren’t going to get much better without improving the talent levels on the defensive side of the ball . . . something it looks like the last couple recruiting classes might start to do.

    The offense will be fine next year with Colter or one of the other guys lined up behind him. The defense will probably be just as bad as it was this year, if not even worse (yikes). (Fitz decided to keep the entire defensive staff in Evanston, despite two terrible years in a row.) I’d say 6-6 next year would be a pretty successful outcome.

  4. Anti-SMD says:

    Anyone who thinks Fitz will be gone by 2015 doesn’t know the history of football at Northwestern. There will be no alumni base calling for his head and they will not turn their back on one of their own. The fact is he graduates all his players and that will keep him going for many years. It is one of a few places where a coach is appreciated for having strong ethics.

    People forget that 4 straight bowl games also means better recruits and the talent of the last three classes will make this team more athletic and better competitors, so there are better athletes starting 2012 on defense than in the past two. I do sense a letdown for 2012 because of youth but 2013 should be a banner year, even with the tough schedule.

    Let’s also remember that Northwestern always has Quarterbacks and the wide receiving staff is deep and excellent, including Kyle Prater, who was the top receiving recruit a couple of years ago. Sitting behind Colter are two strong arm dual-threat QBs. Either of them may end up the starter before next season is over, if Colter struggles.

  5. Richard says:

    If Fitz goes 4-4 against that homestretch in 2014, he’s sitting pretty, and with improved recruiting, 4-4 is quite doable. Really, you don’t think NU can beat Iowa, tTiSB, or Illinois?

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