Pre-Snap Read

The Countdown

No. 64: Troy

By Paul Myerberg   //   Jul 1, 2010

I made myself a solemn promise two years ago, shortly after my preseason pick to win the Sun Belt — yes, Florida Atlantic — saw its title hopes evaporate in a 13-point home loss to Troy, the eventual conference champions. I swore that I would never again pick against the Trojans, saying in last year’s preview that it had “become clear – painfully, in my case – that as long as the Countdown exists, Troy should be viewed as the prohibitive favorite in the Sun Belt.” Yet here I am, two years later, picking a team other than Troy to win the Sun Belt championship. I’m obviously a glutton for punishment.

Last year’s prediction

Merely by process of elimination, it was clear weeks ago that Troy was the Countdown’s pick for top dog in the Sun Belt. Clearly, I feel there’s a gap between the Trojans and the rest of the conference. A few of its conference foes may be as strong at quarterback, or at receiver, both lines or at linebacker, but none can match Troy’s talent across the board, on offense and defense. I have Troy finishing no worse than 8-4, and reaching 9-3 if it can defeat both Bowling Green (this will be a good game) and U.A.B. outside of conference action. Another season, another year atop the Sun Belt. I gather this will never get old with the Trojan fan base.

2009 recap

In a nutshell Another year, another Sun Belt championship for the Troy Trojans. This has become old hat for the class of the conference. Troy has now won the last two Sun Belt title outright and at least shared the last four, thanks to its newfound offensive excellence and a defense that bends, but does not break, against the rest of the conference. Last season saw Troy rank 16th nationally in scoring offense (33.7 points per game), giving it at least 400 points scored for the third straight season. While the defense struggled at times – the Trojans finished 92nd in scoring defense – the unit’s statistical tally is skewed by Troy’s struggles against Florida and Arkansas (56 points each), the two best teams on its schedule. But that has been Troy’s style during this four-year run: lose, often ugly, to the major programs on its schedule, but roll through the Sun Belt. Last year’s team may have been the program’s best since it joined the F.B.S., but in order to maintain this level of success Troy will need to replace a handful of key contributors on offense, as well as break in a new offensive coordinator. Will the Trojans need rely on its defense in 2010?

High point The 24-point win over Middle Tennessee. Beyond merely locking up yet another conference title, Troy’s humbling of the second-best team in the Sun Belt sent a clear message to the rest of conference: is this all you’ve got? The Trojans topped the third-best team in the Sun Belt, Florida Atlantic, by 26 points; and topped the Louisiana pair — Lafayette and Monroe, each 6-6 on the year — by a combined 38 points.

Low point A season-opening loss to Bowling Green was a bit of a shock, though more because some, like myself, expected the Falcons to struggle early in the season while learning a new offensive system. For a low point in a year defined by Troy’s extended winning streak, look no further than a 44-41 double overtime loss to Central Michigan in the GMAC Bowl. A Troy victory would have given the Sun Belt some much-needed credibility on a larger stage. On another note, most viewers were so flabbergasted at the idea of playing a second-tier bowl game so late in January that they missed one of the best games of the entire postseason.

Tidbit Last fall’s 9-4 finish gave Troy four consecutive seasons with at least eight wins, a program record on the F.B.S. level. The rest of the Sun Belt has combined for all of six eight-win seasons as members of the F.B.S.: two each by North Texas and Middle Tennessee State; one from Louisiana-Lafayette; and, most recently, one from Florida Atlantic.

Tidbit (10-win edition) For the first time since 2006, Troy will not face a non-conference opponent coming off a 10-win season. Oklahoma State’s nine wins in 2009 stands as the most on Troy’s non-conference slate. In 2005, Troy faced Florida State (eight wins), Georgia Tech (seven) and Nebraska (eight), as well as Alabama State and U.A.B., in non-conference play.

Former players in the N.F.L.

17 WR Gary Banks (San Diego), DT Chris Bradwell (St. Louis), QB Levi Brown (Buffalo), CB Jorrick Colvin (Arizona), S Brannon Condren (New York Jets), CB Trevor Ford (Green Bay), DT Dion Gales (Kansas City), LB Brandon Lang (San Diego), CB Elbert Mack (Tampa Bay), CB Sherrod Martin (Carolina), CB Leodis McKelvin (Buffalo), DT Steve McLendon (Pittsburgh), LB Cameron Sheffield (Kansas City), K Lawrence Tynes (New York Giants), DE Osi Umenyiora (New York Giants), LB DeMarcus Ware (Dallas), LB Bear Woods (Atlanta).

Arbitrary top five list

Brad Pitt’s worst movies
1. “Meet Joe Black,” 1998.
2. “Troy,” 2004.
3. “Ocean’s Thirteen,” 2007.
4. “Ocean’s Twelve,” 2004.
5. “Spy Game,” 2001.

Coaching

Larry Blakeney (Auburn ‘70), 153-77-1 after 19 seasons with the Trojans. He holds — by leaps and bounds — Troy’s record for career victories, winning three times as many games as his next closest competitor, Billy Atkins (44). Last fall’s nine-win finish gave Troy four consecutive seasons with at least eight wins, the programs best stretch of play since joining the F.B.S. in 2002. Over this span, Troy has cemented its place as the top program in the Sun Belt. Blakeney, undoubtedly the face of the Trojan program, deserves credit for leading Troy from Division II status to the F.B.S. After playing on the Division II level from 1973-92 — the final two seasons under Blakeney –  Troy moved up to the F.C.S., where it spent the following nine years (1993-2001) before graduating to the F.B.S. the following season. The team has experienced success as each step of the way, winning a pair of Southland Conference championships from 1999-2000 and sharing or winning outright the last four Sun Belt titles. Troy has appeared in four F.B.S. bowl games, though it has won only the 2004 New Orleans Bowl, losing the other three post-season affairs. Blakeney’s 153 wins at his current stop ranks him third among active coaches in the F.B.S., trailing only Joe Paterno and Frank Beamer. The finest coach in school history, the finest coach in Sun Belt history, perhaps the most consistent non-B.C.S. conference coach in the country, no coach fits his program better than Blakeney fits Troy.

Tidbit (coaching edition) Troy’s coaching staff underwent a small shakeup following the departure of offensive coordinator Neal Brown to the same position at Texas Tech. Brown will be replaced by Kenny Edenfield, who coached the team’s inside receivers for the last three years. Edenfield will be aided in his new task by offensive line coach John Schlarman, who will also serve as the running game coordinator. Blakeney hired the former Central Michigan assistant Jeff Beckles as his running backs coach – replacing Chad Scott, who went with Brown to Texas Tech – and tabbed Chip Lindsey, a former high school coach, as his quarterbacks coach.

Players to watch

The Trojans must replace Levi Brown, the most prolific single-season passer in school history in 2009, but return the quarterback who beat Brown out for the starting role heading into the 2008 season. Jamie Hampton started the first five games that year, struggling somewhat — nine touchdowns against eight picks — before suffering a season-ending knee injury. The rest, as they say, is history: Brown took over and never looked back, while Blakeney very, very wisely opted to redshirt Hampton last fall to create some separation at the position. Now a junior, Hampton will look to pick up where he left off. It will be difficult for him to duplicate the 4,000-yard output of Brown’s final season, but I don’t think Troy will suffer too much of a letdown under center. Unfortunately, Hampton might again be looking over his shoulder, as he did in 2008: redshirt freshman Corey Robinson will see some action, and is Troy’s option should Hampton scuffle.

Some things change — a new quarterback — some things don’t: Jerrel Jernigan, now a senior, will again be Troy’s key target in the passing game. He’s made at least 70 grabs for 860 yards in each of the last two seasons, including 71 catches — just shy of his school record 77 as a sophomore — for 1,101 yards and 4 touchdowns a year ago. Jernigan did more than just serve as a possession receiver last fall, as his 15.5 yards per catch average would attest. He and Hampton have a history: Jernigan made 34 receptions, three for scores, in Hampton’s five starts in 2008. Don’t let the fact that Troy has a new quarterback scare you into thinking you’ll see any drop-off from the senior in 2010; he’s a lock for another 70 receptions. This is a senior-laden group, as Tebiarus Gill (47 catches for 581), Jason Bruce (24 for 311) and Austin Silvoy currently round out the starting lineup. Again, I remind you to keep an eye on former Oklahoma transfer Josh Jarboe, who struggles with injury limited him to only 15 grabs in 2009. Now a sophomore, Jarboe is the most physically gifted pass-catcher on the roster.

The Troy offensive line is particularly strong on the edge. Junior James Brown and sophomore Kyle Wilborn will bookend the line, with Brown, a former JUCO transfer, playing extremely well on the blind side a year ago. Though Wilborn entered last season as the weakest link on the line — due to his inexperience — but acquitted himself well; the future is bright for the sophomore, who should eventually move to the left side. The Trojans must fill both guard spots, but feel very secure at center: Tyler Clark, a first-team all-Sun Belt pick at left guard in 2009, will supplant Danny Franks in the middle of the line. There is talent at hand on the interior, where another transfer, former Florida State lineman Tyler Graves, will get the first shot at left guard; and junior Micah Grimes has a slight edge over sophomore Jacob Creech.

This line will be opening up holes for the best one-two running back punch in the Sun Belt. Last fall saw DuJuan Harris fail to recapture his 2008 form, when he rushed for 1,082 yards, as the senior battled some off-field issues. His slightly smaller workload allowed sophomore Shawn Southward to land a significant role in the offense: he rushed for 602 yards for 12 scores, both team highs, while earning 5.5 yards per carry. Not that Harris was terrible; he rushed for 583 yards and 10 touchdowns, giving Troy — a team that finished with the fourth-best passing attack in the country — 22 combined scores from its top two backs. Expect more of the same in 2010, if not more so.

There is reason to worry about the defense, as last season’s prime weakness, the secondary, must not become the team’s strength. That’s due to the number of losses along the defensive line, which I’ll touch on below, and the loss of the team’s top two tacklers at linebacker. Plenty of work must be done if Troy hopes to improve upon last year’s poor performance on the defensive side of the ball.

The secondary welcomes back sophomore cornerback Bryan Willis, who had a superb debut campaign; it’s safe to say that despite being a rookie, Willis was Troy’s most consistent defensive back in 2009. He made 73 tackles with 12 pass breakups and 4 interceptions, the latter totals by far the most on the team. Seniors Barry Valcin and Willard Ross should earn starting roles at safety. Each earned plenty of playing time a year ago, with Valcin landing a few starts at cornerback; he’ll move to strong safety in his final season. Troy also returns Bryant McKissic at safety, though he was limited during the spring due to injury.

The second cornerback spot remains open to debate. Sophomore KeJuan Phillips stands atop the depth chart heading into the summer, but that starting role is far from assured. Phillips is talented, but may need to work off some rust after sitting out last season due to academic issues. He’s currently battling junior Jimmie Anderson and a trio of freshmen: Dionte Ponder, Chris Pickett and Joe Lofton. Phillips may be the answer, but he’ll have to show this staff he’s ready for a huge role in this secondary.

It’s not about what Troy returns at linebacker, it’s about what the Trojans have lost. In Bear Woods and Boris Lee, a pair of departed starters, this team lost two of the most productive linebackers in school history. It will be up to senior strong side linebacker Daniel Sheffield to not only increase his production (54 tackles, 2.5 for loss) but take on a leadership role on this otherwise unproven front seven. It helps that the two new starters, at middle and weak side linebacker, respectively, landed plenty of game action in 2009. Xavier Lamb (38 tackles) will replace Lee in the middle. Junior Donnell Golden has made two starts in each of the last two seasons, and will get the nod on the weak side. There is some depth here, despite the loss of two starters. Keep an eye on sophomore Kanorris Davis, who can double at both outside spots.

Position battles to watch

Defensive line Few teams face such a rebuilding job along the defensive front: Troy must replace ends Cameron Sheffield and Brandon Lang, each all-conference selections as seniors; and interior linemen Eugene Kinlaw and Kevin Dixon. Expect a step back in production from Troy’s defensive line in 2010, obviously. Not to say that the Trojans will struggle to find bodies: as always, Troy has athleticism to burn, though this group lacks experience. The most tested returning lineman is senior end Mario Addison, who made 32 tackles and 2.5 sacks last fall as a leading reserve. He’s guaranteed one starting spot, though the opposite end position remains open to debate. By default, the answer might be Jonathan Massaquoi; though only a sophomore, Massaquoi showed flashes of his potential during his one season on the JUCO ranks. He’s not the only former JUCO transfer expected to have an impact up front: another pair of transfers, seniors Emanuel Dudley and Riley Flowers, will play key roles on the inside. You’d have to consider Dudley and Flowers the favorites to open the season in the starting lineup, though I keep expecting junior Sidell Corley, a transfer from L.S.U., to have a huge impact for this defense.

Game(s) to watch

The season will come down to one game: Oct. 5, at Middle Tennessee State. That game will decide the Sun Belt. Troy’s non-conference schedule is far less severe than in year’s past: gone are Florida and Arkansas, for instance, replaced by Oklahoma State and South Carolina.

Season breakdown & prediction

In a nutshell Yes, I’ve made promises in the past to never pick against Troy, at least until the Trojans fail to win the Sun Belt. Yet here we are, with Troy the defending champs, and I’m picking Middle Tennessee State, not the Trojans, to take the Sun Belt in 2010. To be honest, it all comes down to the simple fact that the Blue Raiders host Troy; while I think these are Trojans more talented, I’m giving M.T.S.U. the edge. Still — get ready to be confused — Troy could very well match last season’s nine-win output, thanks to an easier schedule and the typical six or more wins in Sun Belt play. Even though the offense will miss Levi Brown at quarterback, remember that Hampton beat out Brown for the starting job heading into the 2008 season. The defense is a concern, especially up front. Yet Troy always manages to reload, not rebuild, thanks to its commitment to the JUCO ranks and the annual arrival of several talented performers languishing on the sidelines at premier SEC programs. Let me end this section by saying this: I swore I’d never pick against Troy, at least as long as the Trojans continued to win Sun Belt championships. Now that I’ve done so, I’m having my fair share of doubts.

Dream season Troy’s perfect Sun Belt record combines with a 2-2 mark in non-conference play to give the program its first 10-win season on the F.B.S. level.

Nightmare season No, losing the Sun Belt title to Middle Tennessee would not be a nightmare. Think more like 6-6, maybe 5-7; Troy is far too talented to slide that far, in my mind.

In case you were wondering

Where do Troy fans congregate? The premier site for Troy football chatter is Go Troy Trojans, where you can find, in their words, the world famous Troy message board. While it is not world famous — yet — the site is undoubtedly the best place to talk Troy sports. You can also find recruiting coverage at Troy Insider. And don’t forget about Drew Champlin’s blog for The Dothan Eagle.

Up Next

Who is No. 63? Our next team set a new school record for most points in a season last fall. Unfortunately, the team also allowed the most points in a season. And you wonder why it can’t break out of its current string of seven-win finishes.

Tags: Larry Blakeney, Troy

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