Pre-Snap Read

The Countdown

No. 120: North Texas

By Paul Myerberg   //   May 6, 2010

Todd Dodge was a wonderful high school football coach — one might even say a legend in the competitive Texas ranks — who in the course of 36 months has shown himself to be the most overmatched coach in major college football. Year three of the Dodge era at North Texas was eerily similar to the first two: 2-10, 1-7 in Sun Belt play, and well short of competitive more often than not. Sadly, the two victories marks a one-game improvement over 2008 and ties Dodge’s high with the Mean Green, who have gone 5-31 under his watch. Don’t even ask if this is what North Texas expected three years ago; I’m pretty sure Dodge would not have been hired if the university had expected five wins in three years. Instead, did anyone foresee such a difficult transition for a local high school coach with a stout resume, high-powered offensive philosophy and deep connections with talented high schools throughout the state?

Last year’s prediction

I had hopes that the Mean Green would begin to put it together in their second season under Todd Dodge, but the team’s complete lack of progress leaves me skeptical about their future under the former high school coach. The pressure is really on Dodge to show some progress; his contract will likely keep him around regardless of their final record, but another one- or two-win season makes his future very bleak. I see North Texas finishing 2-10, with a win over W.K.U. keeping them out of the basement in the Sun Belt.

2009 recap

In a nutshell In his defense, the Mean Green did score the most points (319) and allow the fewest (427) of any of the three Dodge-coached teams. Continuing with this defense, North Texas was markedly more competitive in 2009 than it was in 2008; the Mean Green lost seven games by 10 points or less, including the final three games of the season by a combined 15 points. Now, the defense rests. Despite the slight improvement, the 427 points allowed — 35.6 points per game — would stand as a new program low were it not for the 541 points and 571 points given up in 2007 and 2008, respectively. The defense — that word again — remains a work in progress, and despite the gains made on offense, the Mean Green will remain a punchline until they can force stops against even the most lowly of conference opposition. (Take the 49 points scored by Western Kentucky, even in a U.N.T. win.) Perhaps Dodge’s decision to hand over the offense to the Mike Canales, formerly of South Florida, will allow him to focus his full attention on creating a more well-balanced team. Will wins follow?

High point A 20-10 win over Ball State to open the season. There was hope at this point! U.N.T. wouldn’t win again until Oct. 31, when quarterback Riley Dodge’s seven combined scores (four passing, three rushing) led the Mean Green to a 68-49 win over Western Kentucky.

Low point One year after losing nine games by at least 29 points, North Texas dropped six games by a touchdown or less. The Mean Green led by at least 10 points at one juncture in four of those six losses: by 17-6 against Ohio (lost 31-30), by 34-24 at Louisiana-Lafayette (lost 38-34), by 13-0 versus Florida Atlantic (lost 44-40) and by 14-0 at Florida International (lost 35-28).

Tidbit Despite the poor won-loss record, North Texas outgained the opposition in seven of its 12 games. The Mean Green totaled 301 yards of total offense against Ohio’s 232 yards in a September loss, 470 yards to Middle Tennessee’s 456 a month later, and most impressively, outgained Florida International by 513 yards of total offense to 258 — and still lost, 35-28.

Tidbit (yardage edition) In that same vein, U.N.T.’s 4,904 yards of total offense set a new school record, breaking the mark of 4,901 yards set in 2007, Dodge’s first season. In fact, the top three yardage outputs in school history have come under Dodge’s watch; the 4,356 yards gained in 2008 ranks third on the school’s all-time list.

Former players in the N.F.L.

3 RB Patrick Cobbs (Miami), LB Cody Spencer (Detroit), OG Brian Waters (Kansas City).

Arbitrary top five list

Top five things containing the word “North”
1. War of Northern Aggression. For those readers below the Mason-Dixon.
2. North By Northwest. Film by Alfred Hitchcock.
3. Peter North. Hey, good at what he does.
4. Northern lights. The aurora borealis.
5. North Carolina. The Tar Heel state.

Coaching

Todd Dodge (Texas ’87), 5-31 over three seasons at North Texas. Three of Dodge’s five career victories have come against Western Kentucky, leaving him with a record of 2-31 against the rest of the country. North Texas snagged Dodge from the high school ranks, where he was widely held to be the closest thing to a Texas coaching legend this side of “Friday Night Lights.” Dodge went 98-11 over seven seasons at Southlake Carroll High School, including a remarkable 79-1 over his final five seasons. That stretch included four state championships, with the lone loss coming by a single point in the 2003 championship. Lofty numbers, even if it is high school. His most famous protégé, quarterback Chase Daniel, went on to great success at Missouri, running a offense similar to the one he piloted under Dodge. So the potential for great things is obviously there, even if North Texas has shown no sign of being competitive under the fourth-year coach. Which brings us back to my earlier points: What’s the hold-up? I wrote in last year’s preview that because of a hefty five-year contract, North Texas would be unable to let Dodge go regardless of how he finished last season. Now that he is entering his fourth season – and with only five wins in three years – Dodge must put forth a sizable improvement in the win column to show he is not in over his head. He has one more shot.

Tidbit (coaching edition) Dodge’s decision to bring in Mike Canales, formerly the offensive coordinator at South Florida, is an interesting one. For starters, it indicates the difficulty he faced in both running the offense and performing his head coach duties. It also indicates a shift for the North Texas offense, which was spread-based for the past three seasons. Though U.N.T. will keep the spread as its base offense, Canales will ask the North Texas quarterbacks to take more snaps under center. You will also see a greater importance placed upon the tight end. You may even see North Texas complete a pass to one of its tight ends! Who would have thought?

Tidbit (great moments in media guide history edition) From the Sun Belt’s media supplement for North Texas heading into this past spring: “In three years at the helm, Dodge has tried to establish a foundation that would lead to victory.” So, in essence, Dodge has tried to make something that might lead to something. It reads like my elementary school report cards: “Paul lacks direction, but is making strides in learning to tie his shoes.”

Key losses

Offense Very few losses across the board; fewer still on offense. Only a single full-time starter must be replaced: right guard Tyler Bailey, a 25-game starter for the Mean Green. Bailey made 13 starts from 2007-8 — eight as a sophomore, five as a junior — but started all 12 games as a senior. A second lost contributor on the interior of the U.N.T. line, Gabe Hollivay, will open up a pair of spots on the offensive line two-deep in 2010. In the backfield, North Texas must find a new backup running back following the graduation of Cam Montgomery. Montgomery might have lost the starting role in his senior season, but he chipped in with 265 yards rushing, good for third on the team. Most of that damage came over the first two weeks of the season, when he notched 149 yards against Ball State and 88 yards against Ohio. As a junior, Montgomery led the Mean Green with 928 yards rushing.

Defense Four lost starters on defense, led by linebackers Tobe Nwigwe and Kylie Hill. Though his senior season was derailed in late October due to a foot injury, Nwigwe, when healthy, remained one of the top linebackers in the Sun Belt. The 2008 second-team all-conference pick was en route to another fine season as a senior, having notched 63 tackles (6 for loss) in only six games played. Nwigwe was sorely missed in the middle of the U.N.T. defense over the second half of the season, as the Mean Green allowed at least 30 points in five of their last six games. Hill had 43 tackles as a senior, his first year at linebacker after starting at safety in 2008. The former JUCO transfer made nine starts in 2009. Along the defensive front, Eddrick Gilmore led the Mean Green with 10.5 tackles for loss and finished second with three sacks, the latter output tying his team-leading total of 2008. While Gilmore was productive, he was not a full-time starter: he started only five games on the year, the final two games of the season at end and three earlier games at tackle.

Players to watch

The U.N.T. offense suffered a disheartening blow during spring practice with the news that starting quarterback Riley Dodge — yes, that Dodge — would never regain the arm strength needed to play the position after a devastating injury in the season finale against Arkansas State. There were rumblings throughout the off-season that Dodge might not be ready to make a 100 percent return for spring ball, but when it became evident that his arm would never recover the coaching staff moved the sophomore to wide receiver. Losing Dodge, who showed potential during his freshman season, will place even greater importance upon junior running back Lance Dunbar. He was the story of the year for the U.N.T. offense: a backup through the first three weeks of the year, Dunbar burst upon the scene with a 101-yard, 2-touchdown performance (on five carries) in a loss to Middle Tennessee State on Sept. 26 and notched at least 100 yards in seven of his next eight games. He finished the year with a Sun Belt-best 1,738 yards and 17 touchdowns, and is a favorite for all-conference honors in 2010. James Hamilton, an unheralded junior, will become Dunbar’s top reserve after a stellar performance during spring practice.

The entire receiving corps returns en masse, with the hope being an added year of experience will lend a more consistent effort from a key position in U.N.T.’s spread offense. Leading the way is senior Jamaal Jackson, who paced the Mean Green with 71 catches, 701 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns in 2009. Michael Outlaw, also a senior, joined Jackson in starting each game for North Texas in 2009. He’s a steady, if unspectacular presence, while Darius Carey may be poised for a breakout sophomore season after finishing second on the team with 57 grabs for 509 yards as a rookie. The offensive line is led by the bookend tackle Victor Gill (left) and Esteban Santiago, who join center J.J. Johnson and left guard Kelvin Drake as returning starters on a capable front. Santiago, entering his fourth year in the starting lineup, is the best of the bunch — and the most likely to earn all-Sun Belt honors. He was especially strong against Sun Belt opposition in 2009, but his play must improve if U.N.T. is going to score another win or two in non-conference play. As noted earlier, North Texas returns eight of the 10 players on its two-deep at the end of the 2009 season; even more so than at wide receiver, one should expect a stronger performance from the offensive line in 2010.

Even with losing Nwigwe and Hill, is it possible that linebacker is the strength of the North Texas defense? It may be a stretch, but bear with me: U.N.T. brings back Craig Robertson, A.J. Penson and Jeremy Phillips — the starting trio at the end of the year — a handful of returning lettermen and a couple of well-regarded JUCO transfers. While the position will miss Nwigwe in the middle, the Mean Green may be deeper at linebacker in 2010. Robertson, who was forced into a larger role after Nwigwe was lost to injury, led the Mean Green in tackles with 107 (1.5 for loss). He’ll be asked to do even more as a senior, especially in terms of creating big plays for a defense prone to allowing extended drives. After ending last fall in the starting lineup, Penson and Phillips enter the summer trying to hold off three capable replacements: Daniel Prior, a sophomore; and the JUCO transfers Brad Graham and Forlando Johnson. Graham is an appealing prospect due to his perceived ability to line up both at linebacker and, potentially, at safety.

Speaking of safety, North Texas returns a pair: DaWaylon Cook, a junior, and Ira Smith, a senior. Cook, often the last line of defense for this porous U.N.T. defense, finished second on the team with 85 tackles last fall. Smith, a JUCO transfer who stepped into a starting role immediately upon arriving on campus, had 53 tackles and an interception in his first season in Denton. The depth at safety took a sizable hit following the departures of key reserves Darien Williams and John Shorter, each of whom played well in limited action in 2009. Safety depth, once an area of strength, now is a question mark. The status of the secondary will be put in further question should junior cornerback Royce Hill not return, as expected, from injury this summer. He will, barring any unfortunate setback, and potentially be joined in the starting lineup by JUCO transfer D’Leon McCord, who arrived on campus in time to participate in spring activities.

Any improvement in the back seven will be for naught if the Mean Green cannot do a better job at getting to the quarterback; this is the third time, if I remember correctly, that I’ve written this sentence over the last three years. Yet U.N.T. continues to be nothing short of inept at rushing the passer, as shown by the team’s 12 sacks in 2009 (116th in the nation). A heavy pass rush, as we all know, can aid a defense in overcoming any of its other faults. Obviously, the pressure is on the front four. One guy carrying his share of the load is junior end Brandon Akpunku, who played well after being moved down from linebacker prior to last season. He finished his sophomore campaign with 10 tackles for loss and a team-best 5.5 sacks — accounting for nearly half of his team’s total in the latter category. He’ll need help from the rest of the line rotation. Four players earned starting snaps on the interior of the line last fall — Shavod Atkinson, Kelvin Jackson, Tevinn Cantly and Draylen Ross; more is expected from this quartet. More will be needed if the Mean Green hope to challenge for respectability.

Position battles to watch

Quarterback I try to avoid the marquee positions in this section, but after losing Dodge to injury, quarterback is up for grabs. Battling to move into the open starting role are senior Nathan Tune, last year’s backup, and sophomore Derek Thompson. Tune, as one would expect, is the more experienced. He played in five games in 2009, and played moderately well when given the chance: 16 of 23 for 126 yards and a touchdown at Alabama and 22 of 33 for 267 yards and 2 touchdowns against Troy, for example. There’s no overvaluing the importance of a steady hand under center, hence Tune’s appeal to a coaching staff dreadfully in need of a successful season. However, Tune — like Thompson — does not bring the running ability that Dodge exhibited in 2009. While Tune is the sure thing — or as close to a senior would-be No. 2 could be — Thompson’s skill set will eventually lead to him starting under center for the Mean Green. His only game experience in 2009 was a single series against Arkansas State in the season finale; all Thompson did was go three for three with a score in nearly leading U.N.T. to a come-from-behind victory. His ceiling is undoubtedly higher than is Tune’s, but I have to think Dodge and his staff will elect to go with the senior, not the sophomore, as they attempt to rally the Mean Green towards a .500 record. Of course, it may be impossible to ignore Thompson’s passing ability.

Game(s) to watch

The month of October, which features three home games and a road date with Western Kentucky, will be key. The month presents the best chance the Mean Green will have at putting together a string of victories over the first two months of the season.

Season breakdown & prediction

In a nutshell The 17 returning starters present reason for optimism, and reason for me to doubt that North Texas will eventually be the worst team in the country. In fact, the Mean Green may very well not be the worst team in their own conference; Western Kentucky, who will be introduced to you within days, can make a strong claim to that title. In fact, the deeper I dig into U.N.T.’s wide-ranging experience the more hesitant I become in placing the Mean Green in this lowly spot. However, then I remember that this team is led by Todd Dodge, a coach with the ability to immediately cripple my enthusiasm. What could go right in 2010? Quite a bit, actually. The U.N.T. schedule is highlighted by a very winnable October, a period that could see U.N.T. — at least, perhaps — go 2-3. There is returning talent on offense, though the new quarterback, whether it be Tune or Thompson, will take time to get acclimated. The majority of the starting defense also returns in 2010; however, I remain unconvinced that we are going to see any improvement from a unit that has struggled mightily since 2007. All told, I have North Texas alongside Western Kentucky at the bottom of the Sun Belt — either could have been in this spot, but I have no choice but to gamble against Todd Dodge.

Dream season Seven wins – six coming before Nov. 1 – and a bowl trip. Dodge gets a nice contract extension.

Nightmare season How’s 0-12 sound? Of course, that would include a loss to Western Kentucky. And 11 other teams, if my math is correct.

In case you were wondering

Where do North Texas fans congregate? As you’ll shortly find out with most of the bottom 10 teams, there is not always a lot of Internet support for the lesser programs in the country. For North Texas, begin your search with Go Mean Green, continue with Inside North Texas and finish with the Web site of the Denton Record Chronicle.

Tidbit (nickname edition) After many months of confusion, the story behind the North Texas nickname was solved by a loyal reader in the comment section of last year’s North Texas preview. According to an article in The Dallas Morning News in 1967, the nickname was coined by Sidney Sue Graham, wife of the university’s sports information director. So no, the nickname does not pay homage to “Mean” Joe Greene. Nor does the name recognize the work of Al Green, Dallas Green, Graham Greene (writer), Graham Greene (actor), A.C. Green, Tom Green or Pumpsie Green, none of whom are associated with the university in any way.

Up Next

Who is No. 119? Our next school’s longtime band leader (1979-2002) shared his name — though with a slightly different spelling of the last name — with the Nobel Prize-winning physicist behind the theory of quantum mechanics.

Tags: North Texas, Todd Dodge

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