Pre-Snap Read

Need to Know

Nevada’s Biggest Roadblock

By Paul Myerberg   //   Jul 20, 2010

Nevada has the players, like Vai Taua, to make national noise. B.Y.U. and Cal loom large.

There’s one thing holding Nevada back. And no, it’s not Boise State. The Broncos were responsible for Nevada’s second-place finish in the WAC last fall, but remember, the Wolf Pack did lose four other games in 2009. What’s keeping Nevada from busting out on a national stage is the program’s lack of success against premier non-conference opposition, teams that consistently make up two of the Wolf Pack’s four games outside of WAC play.

As I wrote in the larger Nevada preview, I think the 2010 season will hinge on how the Wolf Pack fare against B.Y.U. and California, the two marquee games in non-conference play. Now, I know B.Y.U. does not play in a B.C.S. conference; nevertheless, I think it’s fair to include the Cougars — winners of 43 games over the last four seasons — alongside the Bears.

Not that a loss in either game will keep Nevada out of bowl play, or that losses will somehow ruin its season. Merely that victories over one, let alone both, would provide national validation for a team talented enough to win seven games in WAC play.

The Wolf Pack did so last season: 7-1 in the WAC, though 8-5 overall. Two of those setbacks came in September. The first was a 35-0 blanking at Notre Dame — we didn’t yet know how average the Fighting Irish would be — in the season opener. That was follow three weeks later by a 31-21 home loss to Missouri.

There was a similar story in 2008. Nevada, 7-6 overall, went 0-3 against B.C.S. conference opponents. And in 2007: 6-7 in all, 0-2 against premier non-conference opposition. There was a slight discrepancy in 2006, as Nevada’s 8-5 finish included a home victory over Northwestern, but a loss to Washington State to open the 2005 season was one of only three losses on the year for the Wolf Pack.

Take a closer look at last fall: winless through September, Nevada ran roughshod over its first seven WAC opponents. The loss to Boise State sent the Wolf Pack into bowl play on a sour note, unfortunately, but there’s no ignoring how impressive Nevada was in conference play. There’s no reason to think the Pack can’t do the same in 2010, racking up seven wins in conference play, even if Boise State looms large in late November.

It’s virtually guaranteed, in fact. Nevada will beat Eastern Washington to open the year and will be heavily favored to earn a measure of revenge the following week against Colorado State — the Rams upset the Pack last fall. With all due respect to Bobby Hauck, U.N.L.V. doesn’t have a shot against Nevada on Oct. 2; the Wolf Pack dropped 63 points on their in-state rival a season ago.

At least six additional wins will come in WAC play. San Jose State, Utah State and New Mexico State come at home; 3-0. Nevada will win at Idaho and Louisiana Tech, though the latter game, on the heels of the Boise State matchup, could be a trap — coming off a high or a low — in either direction. Nevada hasn’t fared well in Hawaii, to be sure. And Fresno State is nearly always a handful. Regardless of how you cut, however, Nevada can’t possibly do worse than 8-5 in the regular season.

If the Wolf Pack go 7-1 in conference play and 3-0 against Eastern Washington, Colorado State and U.N.L.V., games against California and B.Y.U. will answer the following question: Hawaii Bowl or Top 25? If the Wolf Pack beat Cal, for instance, but lose to B.Y.U., they’ll enter bowl play at 11-2; borderline Top 25, perhaps headed to the Poinsettia Bowl. Win both? Think big. As in 12-1, with two marquee victories on the schedule. Win both, and the Nov. 26 home game against Boise State becomes the biggest game of the meaningful Chris Ault era.

Unfortunately, history states that Nevada won’t beat both B.Y.U. and the Golden Bears. It won’t defeat either, if recent history is any guide. Losing both won’t prevent 2010 from being a good year for the Wolf Pack; winning both can make this a great year, perhaps the most memorable in program history.

Tags: B.Y.U., Boise State, California, Nevada

 Home