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The Countdown

A bottom-to-top assessment of the F.B.S. landscape heading into the 2011 season.

Jerry's Liner Notes

Fridays With Jerry: Teams Nos. 70-51

It's been a few weeks, but Jerry is back hard at work after a little-deserved vacation.

Jerry Garcia, late of the Grateful Dead — and the planet Earth — has blessed us with his take on each team previewed thus far on the Countdown. I’ll first list Paul’s prediction, followed by Jerry’s often musically-influenced point of view. You can’t blame Jerry: he’s been singing these songs so long they often slip into his everyday conversation. Do your best to follow; those familiar with the Dead will find the songs pretty easily.

Jerry’s been on a long, strange, trip the past few weeks, so please excuse his derelict behavior. He wants to give his opinion on the Countdown, but he’s been stuck on the road, playing venues across the country. He’s promised us that there will be no more unexcused absences. Yet while Jerry is everyone’s favorite hippie, he’s not always trustworthy. We’ll try to keep him in line.

No. 70: Hawaii

Paul There remains more good than bad with this team, and anything short of a bowl trip should place McMackin’s job in jeopardy heading into 2011. I’d be surprised if U.H. doesn’t get that seventh win, however.

Jerry I liked Paul’s top five Hawaiian musicians. Especially Israel Kamakawiwo’ole, for as much weight as I put on that gent made me look like Keith Richards. Except I’m a much better guitar player than Keith. As for Hawaii, well it’s been heaven but even rainbows will end. Now they’re just the Warriors, and things are going to be tough again this year, their third without June Jones.

Saint of Circumstance PSR

No. 69: Oklahoma State

Paul There is talent here, but I expect some growing pains. There’s a similar story on defense: Lemon’s healthy return — hopefully — will boost the linebacker corps, but the secondary is a concern. There is easily enough talent in Stillwater for the Cowboys to return to bowl play, perhaps even maintain the streak of seven-win seasons. I think we’ll see a slight decline in 2010, however.

Jerry Tell you what T. Boone Pickens. You can’t buy my love with money, ‘cuz I ain’t never been that kind. And apparently you can’t buy a national championship with your oil money. And just when I thought I’d like you more ‘cuz you were gonna throw some of your oil money at green energy in the form of wind power, you go and pull the plug on that too.

Silver Threads PSR

No. 68: Duke

Raise your hand if you need help with the spelling. It's Krzyzewski, Jerry.

Paul This year will be no different offensively, though much does depend on how well Renfree can recover from his knee injury. If he’s ready to go come September, as expected, the Blue Devils will challenge the school record for points scored in a season; if he’s not, all bets are off when it comes to reaching that sixth win. No, Duke is not terrific, not a conference title contender, but I do think this team is prepared to take the next step.

Jerry Here’s the problem if Duke has a special season: Joe Fan is gonna say to himself, “Never had such a good time in my life before, I’d like to have it one time more.” Well it might not happen. And that’s gonna be painful. Maybe it’s better just to suck all the time and not have your heart broken? I dunno the answer to that one. Maybe you should ask Coach Kyzre… Coach Kryzgre… Coach Kryzyzyz… Moving on…

Might as Well PSR

No. 67: Kansas

Paul To be honest, I don’t think these Jayhawks are going to win more than seven games — perhaps better than last year’s team, at least in the win column, though not a realistic North division contender. I think K.U. is far closer to Kansas State — coming soon on the Countdown — than Missouri, a team I’m high on, and is far off the pace set by Nebraska, a national title contender. I’m not going to get into the program’s future in the Big 12, other to say that it’s not altogether bright. I can say that Kansas has the right man to keep it in yearly bowl contention, beginning in 2010 and extending as far as the university will have him — or can keep him.

Jerry Hey there big boss man – yeah, that’s right tubbs – can’t you hear me when I call? Just calling to let you know that you’ve been relieved of your duties as head coach. Oh you gotta problem with that? Well you ain’t so big, you’re just… yeah, you really are that big. Holy cow. It’s like Sasquatch mated with a manatee. I applaud you sir.

Big Boss Man PSR

No. 66: Tennessee

Paul Tennessee has a lack of proven options at quarterback. The offensive line must be rebuilt on the fly, as must the interior of the defensive line. The Vols must replace an all-world talent in the secondary, as well as a handful of starters along the back seven of the defense. No, this team should be happy merely with landing bowl eligibility. I think Tennessee is capable of doing so, but, as noted, by the skin of its teeth.

Jerry Ah, Tennessee. Tennessee. Ain’t no place I’d rather be. Baby, won’t you carry me back to Tennessee? Just don’t invite that snake Lane Kiffen to come along. I think Tennessee did themselves a great favor by hiring that Dooley fella. Cream rises to the top as they always say. And that’s a good thing, unless it’s because you left your orange julius sitting out too long.

Tennessee Jed PSR

No. 65: Purdue

Paul I like Purdue’s front seven on defense, though the secondary worries me. That group, more so than any other, will receive a significant boost from the arrival of several incoming freshmen in the fall. There remain more positives than negatives, and a relatively smooth schedule — an easy non-conference slate and several winnable conference home games — should allow Purdue to at least reach six wins. I think this team capable of winning seven games, in fact. I like the job Danny Hope has done.

Jerry One upon a time there was an engineer — you like the Purdue reference so far? — drove a locomotive both far and near. Accompanied by a monkey who would sit on a stool and watch everything the engineer would move. That might be a harsh way to describe Danny Hope, man, but he watched ol’ Joe Tiller good. I like Purdue and I think they’ll be good. They never get enough credit.

Monkey and the Engineer PSR

No. 64: Troy

Paul Yet Troy always manages to reload, not rebuild, thanks to its commitment to the JUCO ranks and the annual arrival of several talented performers languishing on the sidelines at premier SEC programs. Let me end this section by saying this: I swore I’d never pick against Troy, at least as long as the Trojans continued to win Sun Belt championships. Now that I’ve done so, I’m having my fair share of doubts.

Jerry Troy’s a good program, man. Always competitive, knocks off some big bad B.C.S. teams every once in a while too. Larry Blakeney just reloads his gun and moseys down to the bank with those Sun Belt championships every year. Impressive stuff.

Money Money PSR

No. 63: Southern Mississippi

Paul This is a pretty good team, likely the best of the Fedora era. However, as unfortunate as it is — or as misguided as I am for considering it — I think the schedule keeps Southern Mississippi at seven wins. I’ll cover my tracks by saying this team is easily talented enough to win the East division. It all depends on the outcome of its trip to U.C.F. on Nov. 13.

Jerry The Southern Miss administration pulled a Mississippi Half-Step; that’s when you fire a really good coach and hire another who does just slightly better than the first one. And I’m not even sure that Larry Fedora is an upgrade over Jeff Bower. I don’t want to say they nailed a retread to their feet and prayed for better weather. But they let a good man go.

Mississippi Half-Step PSR

No. 62: N.C. State

Paul It’s just a matter of time, in my opinion, before Tom O’Brien wins in Raleigh; he’s too good a coach to expect otherwise. I think we’ll see a better Wolfpack team in 2010, a team that will return to bowl play for the first time since 2005, but I have N.C. State finishing fourth in the Atlantic division. For a program fallen on hard times, a bowl trip would be just fine.

Jerry There comes a redeemer, and slowly he too fades away. Tom O’Brien was supposed to be the savior, taking over for the brutal Chuck “The Chest” Amato regime. It ain’t been so great though, man. Don’t know why ‘cuz Tom always did a great job in Chestnut Hill. College football is a fickle mistress. A man can win in one place but not another. Doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me.

Eyes of the World PSR

No. 61: Kentucky

Paul So why do I have Kentucky in this spot, and why do I have the Wildcats landing that sixth win? Because nothing has changed: Kentucky never looks good on paper, never seems to have the pieces to upset a team or two in SEC play, yet always does — at least over the last four years. While my concerns about the long-term viability of the program will not be addressed until I see Phillips in action, I like the Wildcats to continue its bowl streak. Though not by much: I’m thinking six wins.

Jerry From the coal mines of Kentucky to the California sun, I think the folks in the Bluegrass State should be excited about Joker Phillips. He’s got a great name to boot. But you know what I think when I hear the word bluegrass? I think of the wonderful hybrid of Kentucky Bluegrass, Featherbed Bent, and Northern California sinsemilla; that amazing blend that lets you play 36 holes on it in the afternoon, take it home, and just get stoned to the beejezus-belt that night on it.

Me and Bobby McGee PSR

No. 60: Ohio

Jerry says former Nebraska athletic director Steve Pederson is a "Muppet-man."

Paul Well, I do think the Bobcats will suffer a slight decline in the win column — I think repeating last year’s nine-win mark will be difficult. Yet this is clearly still a bowl team, a very solid bowl team, and right alongside Northern Illinois as the second-best team in the MAC. There’s simply a lot to like about Ohio, beginning with a terrific coach and continuing with an experienced, talented roster.

Jerry Frank Solich is a heck of a coach. Always has been. Not a great recruiter, but he’s a great fit for a MAC program. He was a good fit for Nebraska too, until that Muppet Steve Pederson said “You’re in the wrong place my friend. You’d better leave.” Well how’d that work out for you Muppet-man? Not so well. The guy who landed on his feet was Fast Franky Solich. And I’m glad he did.

Desolation Row PSR

No. 59: Kansas State

Paul Most importantly, I have no doubt that with another year under Snyder, this team knows what the Hall of Fame coach expects: hard work, tough play and an even tougher mentality. This team, like last year’s squad, will be more than a nuisance: they’ll be a pest, and will make a handful of more talented teams scratch and claw for every point. Anything less than a return to bowl play — after a three-year absence, by the way — would be shocking.

Jerry I wish I had a good song for ol’ Kansas State. But nothing I’ve ever written or performed could top this. Growl!

No. 58: Middle Tennessee State

Paul I don’t think it’s too much to ask for another 10-win season; there’s little reason to think M.T.S.U. will be any worse, though it’s not every year that a mid-level F.B.S. programs puts forth a seven-game win streak. For Middle Tennessee, the next step is not an 11-win campaign, nor even a repeat of last year’s mark. It’s all about taking back the Sun Belt from the Trojans, a task that comes down to the Oct. 5 home tilt. That game decides the season: the Blue Raiders are going bowling either way, but it’s time to step up and take the Sun Belt.

Jerry Will Middle Tennessee win double digit games again this year? I don’t know. Don’t really care. Let there be songs to fill the air. La-di-da-da-dah. Dah-daah-di-da-dah. La-di-dah. Di-dah. La-di-dah-dah-dah.

Ripple PSR

No. 57: Southern Methodist

Paul I expect nothing more than consistent improvement from the Mustangs, beginning with more strides made in 2010 and culminating, in my opinion, with yearly status among the top two or three programs in Conference USA. Another strong Houston team and Tulsa’s projected improvement will prevent S.M.U. from taking the West division, but this program will be heading back to bowl play for a second consecutive season.

Jerry Lotta poor man make a five dollar bill, will keep him happy all the time. Now that Mustangs fans have gotten the taste of winning tastes like, can they sane if they don’t win a lot of games this year? Fear not, dear S.M.U. fans. I think you guys are gonna be good; getting better all the time is a hallmark of a June Jones-coached team.

Cumberland Blues PSR

No. 56: Central Florida

Paul I’m not going to say the sky is the limit, as this offense — regardless of the success it had down the stretch last fall — will prevent the Knights from cracking the Top 25, for instance. Yet this is the best team in the East division, ahead of Southern Mississippi, and should advance to the Conference USA title game. With this defense, anything is possible when U.C.F. gets to that point.

Jerry No one is forsaken, and no one is a liar. Well George O’Leary was a liar once, and it cost him dearly when he was the Notre Dame coach for a week or so. But Notre Dame got Charlie Weis and U.C.F. got O’Leary. I think the Knights came out ahead on that one. Goes to show that no one is forsaken, especially given the amazing rejuvenating powers of college football and winning football games.

Sunrise PSR

No. 55: Northern Illinois

Paul Ten wins is clearly possible. Nine wins would not be shocking. Eight wins seems likely, with at least six wins coming in MAC play, with a definite bowl bid in the cards. When all is said and done, I feel very confident in N.I.U. landing a berth in the conference title game; this will be the program’s best team since 2004.

Jerry Before you step on board sir, your name I’d like to know. Wait a minute? You’re Jerry too? Jerry Kill? What a sublimely tasteful first name, yet barbarian last name you have. Pleasure to meet you. Best of luck in 2010.

Jack-a-Roe PSR

No. 54: Washington

Paul Yet I can’t ignore some of the concerns: unless we see sizable improvement during the fall, both sides of the line will be this team’s Achilles heel. Other Pac-10 teams have fewer issues, thus my belief that of the conference’s second grouping, Washington is the least likely to challenge for a Rose Bowl berth. I’m predicting seven wins: lest we forget, U.W. went 0-12 in 2008. The program is headed in a wonderful direction: up.

Jerry Washington fans said to Jake Locker at the end of last season, “Do us a favor, son, won’t you stay and keep us (and Anna-Lee) company.” And young Master Locker gave up his N.F.L. riches to do that. I applaud you, young man. Now hows about actually winning some football games? Geesh.

The Weight PSR

No. 53: Rutgers

Paul The offensive line may need to round into form in 2010, but all the meaningful pieces will return in 2011. The defense is very talented — Schiano continues to stockpile talent on this side of the ball — but I’m somewhat worried about how the new contributors will fare in the defensive backfield. Rutgers fans will take umbrage with No. 53 ranking, I’m sure. By my standards — and with this schedule — a seven-win regular season is deserving of this spot.

Jerry You know what Greg Schiano says to his assistant coaches right before they go hit the recruiting trail? “Men, you know what state I want you to hit? It’s name is F.L.O.R. Now wait a minute. F.L.O.R. Wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute. F.L.O.R.I-I-I-I-I-I-I.D.A! F.L.O.R.I.D.A! Florrrr-iiii-daaaa!”

Gloria PSR

No. 52: Fresno State

Paul If the Bulldogs can develop a stouter front seven, this could be a 10-win team: losses to Boise State and one of the three B.C.S. conference opponents. It’s just impossible to make such a prediction; Fresno needs to show us something first. I do think the Bulldogs are a lock for eight wins, with second place in the WAC coming down to a home game against Nevada.

Jerry Picture yourself, if you will, on a train in a station. A station with plasticine porters wearing looking-glass ties. Suddenly, someone is there at the turnstile. It’s Pat Hill, with his fu-manchu moustache. Who else were you expecting?

Lucy In The Sky With Diamonds PSR

No. 51: Michigan State

Paul Even if the defense does not improve, in fact, this team — thanks partly to the schedule — should at least match last season’s win total. I’m willing to go a little farther: at least seven wins, with the potential to finish as high as third in the Big Ten. It’s hard to project the latter to occur until the defense proves it’s ready to help carry the load. For now, I have the Spartans in a virtual tie for fifth-place in the Big Ten. A better team, without question.

Jerry Now, when the flower lady wants back what she has lent you and the smell of her roses does not remain, do you think the Spartans can remember what it was like to play in The Grandaddy of Them All? Or is it just a haunting, bewitching memory of good times past? It must be depressing to be a State football fan sometimes, man. But they have a great hoops programs so that’s gotta ease the sting somewhat, right?

Queen Jane Approximately PSR

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Comments

  1. Glenn says:

    Nicely done. And, although my local teams sadly all appeared lower than No. 70, I hope the Rams and Buffs continue to beat it down the line. I’ll certainly shine my light through the cool Colorado rain on my way to a few games this fall……

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