Twenty-five teams down, 99 to go. When you put it that way, it’s hard to find the light at the end of the tunnel. Perhaps I’d be wise to take a cue from the triple-digit portion of this summer’s Countdown, which carries a different feel than in years past. I can think of one clear reason why: For many of the bottom 25, the coming season brings with it tremendous reason for optimism. Not optimism in the traditional sense – in the idea that despite the odds, a program feels it can challenge for a major breakthrough – but in the sense that come win, lose or draw, a program is playing with house money. This is somewhat a result of the four new F.B.S. programs that came off of the board in April: Texas-San Antonio, South Alabama, Texas State and Massachusetts.

These teams don’t care for wins as much as they care simply about the games themselves: whether the Roadrunners go winless doesn’t matter, but the fact that the Roadrunners are in a position to go winless does – the program has joined the party, and that fact, not the final standings, will define its first season on the F.B.S. level.

Another six schools are in the same body of water, though not the same boat. Akron, Memphis, U.A.B., Florida Atlantic, Tulane and Colorado State realize that the tide won’t immediately turn, but these programs are happy to take on another downtrodden finish under a new coaching staff if it means better days lie ahead. The new staff brings hope; for now, hope is as good as wins.

Kansas has Charlie Weis, but B.C.S. conference programs are less willing to accept more of the same – another last-place finish – than their non-B.C.S. conference counterparts. For evidence, look no further than Kansas itself: the Jayhawks jettisoned Turner Gill after two dreadful seasons, though Kansas seemed to get worse as Gill’s tenure progressed, leading to his dismissal.

So this has been somewhat of a feel-good bottom 25: not feel-great, mind you, but there’s less negativity surrounding this cellar-dwelling portion of the F.B.S. than in the recent past. More than a third of these teams – those mentioned above, and even Kansas, to a degree – carry enough excitement about the future into the fall to ignore the looming specter of a rebuilding season. Or simply a building season, when it comes to the fresh-faced, wet-behind-the-ears Roadrunners.

The negativity is focused in one spot: Chestnut Hill. The Eagles are a train wreck on the field and off, thanks to mishandling of the program on a large scale and smaller, day-to-day missteps by those charged with leading B.C. back into A.C.C. contention. Don’t blame the players; instead, find fault with those in charge of the football program.

But there’s a difference between B.C. and the vast majority of the bottom 25: the Eagles have a chance. Not a chance at winning 10 games, or even challenging Florida State and Clemson for the Atlantic division title. But the Eagles have a so-so chance at reversing this current three-year slide and moving back into bowl play – actually improving, which is something this program hasn’t done since Jeff Jagodzinski’s first season.

B.C. is one of three triple-digit programs with the wherewithal – if the program can get out of its own way – to surge back into the postseason. The second is Ball State, which despite a moderately difficult schedule and some personnel issues seems poised to be a perennial factor in the MAC under Pete Lembo. The third is Troy, which needs only to button up defensively to move back into the Sun Belt’s good graces.

Consider each in turn. What does B.C. have? A new offensive coordinator in Doug Martin, formerly of New Mexico State. A quarterback growing into the position – growing on the fly, which has led Chase Rettig to hit more than a few speed bumps along the way. Talent in the backfield. Returning experience along the offensive line. Promising youth along the back seven on defense.

In my mind, Ball State has one of the best young coaches in college football – even if Lembo remains completely unknown on a national level. The Cardinals will be better offensively in their second season in Lembo’s season. The defense has holes, true, but as on offense, there’s reason to think that the added experience with the new coaching staff will lead to an improved performance.

And Troy is Troy: the Trojans dominated the Sun Belt for so long as to make last season an aberration, even if the swoon carries over into this coming season. All the Trojans need to do, even if this sounds easier in theory than in action, is become more physical in the running game and limit the number of big plays in the passing game.

So why so negative about the Eagles, seeing that the team does have the ability to surpass its preseason expectations? One is the program’s location: expectations differ when you move to the B.C.S. conference landscape, and doubly so when Frank Spaziani and the current staff – with a few new additions on offense – are set to enter their fourth season.

A second reason is harder to define. Think of like this: Boston College’s decline was of its own making. The Eagles were there, winning eight or more with ease, for more than a decade. Then the program spit the bit, slowly but surely self-destructing following its decision to fire Jagodzinski early in 2009. The first error was hiring Spaziani, since that hire was motivated solely by the desire to avoid another broken heart; B.C. didn’t like getting jilted at the altar, and knew that Spaziani was never, ever going to leave the program for greener pastures.

How many programs in college football would kill to experience the sort of run B.C. went through from 1999-2008? Kent State hasn’t won more than six games in a season in 25 years. Tulane is 52-103 since Tommy Bowden left after the 1998 season. Things are looking up at Eastern Michigan, but that program remains more than two decades removed from its last winning season. Northwestern? Vanderbilt? U.A.B., Akron, Duke?

Think any one of that group – or countless others in the F.B.S. – wouldn’t kill for a run like the one B.C. experienced for 11 years? Or even half of that run, or a third of that run, or just one eight-win season? That’s why it’s so easy to be negative about the Eagles: because they were the envy of so many, without even knowing it, and threw it all away. It wasn’t taken away; it was given away. Twenty-four of the bottom 25 can find one reason or another to be excited about 2012. At B.C., there’s enough negativity to go around.

–Troy led the Sun Belt in total plays run from scrimmage in each year from 2007-10. The Trojans averaged 980.3 plays per season, running at least 972 plays each year with a high of 997 plays in 2010.

–The Trojans’ offense was on the field for 867 plays last fall, which tied Florida International for fifth-most in the Sun Belt. Arkansas State led the way with 1,016 plays, followed by Louisiana-Monroe with 939 plays, Middle Tennessee with 938 plays and Louisiana-Lafayette with 893 plays.

–And the Trojans weren’t doing more with less. Last year’s offense averaged 5.3 yards per play, a program-low since 2007. Troy averaged 5.9 yards per play in 2010; 6.5 yards per play in 2009. Both totals paced the conference. Two teams, Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette, tied for the S.B.C. lead at 5.7 yards per play last fall.

Allow these numbers – which don’t tell the whole story, merely a slice of the story – to help illustrate one undeniable fact about the Sun Belt as a whole: the conference is all about offense. It has been since 2006, in fact. Troy didn’t dominate the league for five years because of its defense, though that certainly provided another degree of separation between the Trojans and their conference rivals.

Troy dominated the S.B.C. because it was so far ahead offensively that others simply couldn’t keep pace. As last season indicated, the tide has turned. Offense is now in: Florida Atlantic went against the grain in hiring Carl Pelini last winter, but even that hire was made with an eye on offense, in a way. The Owls brought in Pelini to combat Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette and Troy, though not to replicate their blueprint.

The tide began to turn once teams like Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette hired young, energetic coaches with systems tailor-made for non-B.C.S. conference play. The Red Wolves know that they caught lightning in a bottle with Hugh Freeze: his replacement, Gus Malzahn, is a no-brainer for many reasons, but primarily because he can take Freeze’s offense-first foundation and run with it.

Come back to Troy. Now that the rest of the league has caught up to Troy – and surpassed Troy, for one season – what can the program do to reclaim its spot atop the Sun Belt? No longer can the Trojans win by doing what others can’t, by running a frenetic, fast-paced offense. Others have caught on; Troy has company.

The key for Troy is to have staying power. The Trojans were the Sun Belt’s lone constant from 2006-10. Rivals like Florida Atlantic rose up and provided a challenge but didn’t hang around for long. The Trojans don’t really need alter anything, in the sense that the program needs to make grand, wholesale changes on both sides of the ball. Nothing of the sort, in fact.

Well, let’s hedge that statement a bit. The offense does need to have balance. Perhaps it’s not a coincidence that Troy’s worst offensive showing of the last six years came when the running game took a steep nosedive. As noted in the preview, the Trojans dropped from 52nd nationally in rushing in 2010 to 117th a year ago.

Troy needs to run the ball with consistency. The passing game isn’t the sole answer, even with an experienced quarterback like Corey Robinson under center and five or six very intriguing targets in the passing game. The offensive line needs to toughen up, take on a more physical mentality and open up lanes on the ground.

The defense needs to do a better job taking advantage of its overall speed. Troy always recruits athletes; the Trojans do this better than any team in the S.B.C., and as well as any non-B.C.S. conference team in the country. Defensive coordinator Jeremy Rowell has made a slight tweak heading into the fall, adding a hybrid end-linebacker to the defensive front, but could he do more with the athleticism at his disposal?

Could Troy take a page out of Louisiana-Monroe’s playbook and dabble with the 3-3-5? This system allows the Warhawks to do more with less, putting under-the-radar recruits in space with a base set designed to give more talented opponents fits. In that same vein, could this defense allow Troy do more with, well, more? I’m not entirely in favor of this option, but could the Trojans use some new breath at coordinator altogether?

The important factor to consider, and one I attempted to convey in the preview, is that Troy’s football mindset isn’t broken. If Troy handles the next one or two seasons correctly, this will be a momentary pause, not a full-fledged swoon. The Trojans are still as talented as any team in the S.B.C., if not more so.

Just weather this storm. Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette and Western Kentucky need to prove that they can hang around the top third of the Sun Belt. Troy has already shown an ability to stick around for an extended period of time. In a change, however, Troy must show an ability to reload. Not rebuild, mind you: reload. It’s a fitting word for a conference heavily slanted towards offensive firepower.

Troy is – or was, or was and will be again – a paragon of consistency in a sport largely devoid of programs with staying power. This is especially true on the non-B.C.S. conference level, where few programs have shown an ability to reach the top of a conference and stay there, fighting off all challengers, for a period of time beyond one or two seasons. Troy dominated the Sun Belt for five years, from 2006-10, and no, dominate is not too strong a word. The Trojans won 77.3 percent of their conference games over these five seasons, the fourth-best conference winning percentage in college football – behind Boise State, T.C.U., Ohio State and Virginia Tech. That’s some elite company. And that’s one reason why it’s safe to say that Troy will be back, even if this swoon last two years, not just one.

Last year’s prediction

Six wins will be easy to come by in conference play, but what about seven? Eight? It’s doable, but the last two Troy teams have shown a tendency to come out flat on occasion, such as they did against Louisiana-Monroe a year ago. The trick will be find more consistency on defense, which should come with increased health, and to avoid turnovers, which Robinson should do as a second-year starter. Eight wins is the baseline for success in this day and age of Troy football, and even with some lingering concerns I have no doubt that this year’s team will get there in the regular season.

2011 recap

In a nutshell It’s not like the Trojans have a history of defensive incompetence, or that Jeremy Rowell doesn’t know how to coordinate a defense. As for the first statement: Troy led the Sun Belt in scoring defense in both 2007 and 2008, finishing 31st nationally in the latter season. And as for the second statement: Rowell has been Troy’s coordinator since 2005, meaning he sat front and center during the program’s unparalleled Sun Belt run. It’s not broken. But the defense does need to be fixed, as the Trojans have played progressively worse on this side of the ball over the last three years. After allowing 29.8 points per game in 2009 and 30.2 in 2010, the Trojans gave 33.7 points per game last fall, ranking them 101st nationally in scoring defense. No amount of offense is going to bail out such a weak defense, as Troy learned the hard way – and the offense, the program’s worst since 2005, was equally to blame for last season’s slide. The end result was three wins, the program’s fewest since Larry Blakeney was hired in 1991.

High point The first four games of the season, even if you could tell that something was amiss. Troy lost to two B.C.S. conference teams, as expected, but did give Arkansas a bit of scare in the third quarter. Then the Trojans beat Middle Tennessee State and U.A.B., but neither convincingly: the Blue Raiders by a field goal, the Blazers by a single point.

Low point Troy was close to reaching five wins, but all three-win teams are close to five wins. But you really couldn’t say that the Trojans were a break or two away from bowl eligibility, not when seven of their nine losses came by 10 or more points. The worst performances came over the final two weeks of the season, when Troy lost to Arkansas State and Western Kentucky by a combined score of 86-32.

Tidbit The Trojans went 3-2 at home last fall, marking the program’s 23rd straight season with a winning record in home games. That Troy went 3-2 at home means that it went 0-7 in road games, which marked the program’s worst road record in the modern era of college football. The Trojans have now gone winless in games played outside of Troy six times in the modern era: 1936 (0-4), 1956 (0-5), 1960 (0-5), 1965 (0-4), 1982 (0-6) and last fall.

Tidbit (transfers edition) As has been the case for years, Troy’s roster is loaded with JUCO, F.B.S. and F.C.S. transfers. Thirty-eight players on Troy’s spring roster began their career elsewhere, including four transfers from the SEC. Another 21 arrived off the JUCO ranks or via a post-graduate military academy. And four players come from one school: North Alabama.

Former players in the N.F.L.

14 DE Mario Addison (Indianapolis), WR Stanley Arukwe (Arizona), OT James Brown (Chicago), RB DuJuan Harris (Jackonsville), WR Jerrel Jernigan (New York Giants), S Sherrod Martin (Carolina), DE Jonathan Massaquoi (Atlanta), CB Leodis McKelvin (Buffalo), DT Steve McLendon (Pittsburgh), LB Cameron Sheffield (Kansas City), K Lawrence Tynes (New York Giants), DE Osi Umenyiora (New York Giants), LB DeMarcus Ware (Dallas).

Arbitrary top five list

U.S.C. running backs
1. O.J. Simpson (1967-68).
2. Reggie Bush (2003-5).
3. Marcus Allen (1978-81).
4. Mike Garrett (1963-65).
5. Charles White (1978-80).

Coaching

Larry Blakeney (Auburn ‘70), 164-91-1 after 21 seasons with the Trojans. He holds — by leaps and bounds — Troy’s record for career victories, winning nearly four times as many games as his next closest competitor, Billy Atkins, who won 44 games from 1966-71. Last fall’s three-win finish snapped Troy’s streak of five consecutive seasons with at least eight wins, the program’s best stretch of play since joining the F.B.S. in 2002. The slide was disappointing but temporary: Troy may again struggle getting back to six wins in 2012, but it won’t last. Over the span of eight-win seasons, Troy cemented its place as the top program in the Sun Belt. After playing on the Division II level from 1973-92 — the final two seasons under Blakeney – Troy moved up to the F.C.S., where it spent the following nine years, from 1993-2001, before graduating to the F.B.S. the following season. The team has experienced success as each step of the way, winning a pair of Southland Conference championships from 1999-2000 and sharing or winning outright five straight Sun Belt titles from 2006-10. Troy has appeared in five F.B.S. bowl games, though it has won only two, losing a pair in painful fashion. Blakeney’s 164 wins at his current stop ranks him third among active coaches in the F.B.S., trailing only Chris Ault and Frank Beamer. The finest coach in school history, the finest coach in Sun Belt history and one of the most consistent non-B.C.S. conference coaches in the country, no coach fits his program better than Blakeney fits Troy.

Players to watch

Corey Robinson didn’t regress. But neither did he improve. Instead, Robinson’s sophomore season was either as good or a shade worse than his sterling freshman season; the lack of progression can be viewed as regression, in a way, since most quarterbacks are able to take a nice step forward during their second season in the starting lineup. All Robinson did was continue to produce: he threw for 3,411 yards and 21 touchdowns, cracking the 300-yard mark seven times and tossing two or more scores seven times, including in each of the last four games of the year. But he also continued to have some issues with turnovers, throwing 15 picks for the second straight year. A high number of interceptions is to be somewhat expected, given the high volume of attempts, but this is one area where Robinson could stand to improve.

Why? Because Troy is nearly unbeatable when it stays turnover-free – 29-4-1 in such games since Blakeney arrived in 1991. Beyond that, Robinson is the lifeblood of this offense, with the passing game as his weapon of choice: Troy goes as far as he leads them, especially with such concerns on defense, so Robinson needs to step into a rhythm and stay there, nearly without pause, for three-plus months. It would be ridiculous to say that Troy could do any better with its other options, though perhaps Blakeney was smart to push Robinson by trying out Deon Anthony and Dallas Tidwell during the spring. It’s Robinson’s position, his offense and his team. He’ll have a very good junior season.

Losing three talented seniors after the 2010 season – like Jerrel Jernigan, for starters – led Troy to spread the ball around more last fall. Twelve players made at least 12 catches a year ago, led by a team-best 67 grabs from junior Eric Thomas, an all-Sun Belt pick, and I’d be surprised if offensive coordinator Kenny Edenfield doesn’t continue sharing the wealth in 2012. But the receiver corps revolves around Thomas, who moved seamlessly into Jernigan’s top role as Robinson’s favorite receiver. Thomas should draw enough attention to make life a little easier for returning contributors like Chandler Worthy (22 receptions for 392 yards), Justin Albert (40 for 338), Jaquan Robinson (18 for 211) and Felton Payton (13 for 120).

One player whose fall availability is in serious question is senior Corey Johnson, who tore his A.C.L. in late March. Modern medicine has reached the point where a springtime knee injury doesn’t automatically end a player’s season, but it’s hard to imagine Johnson returning to full strength by September – it’s also hard to see him returning to the point where he’d leapfrog ahead of Troy’s other gifted, injury-free options at the position. But remember that the Trojans do get back Chip Reeves and Jamel Johnson, two would-be starters who missed last season due to academics. With Thomas leading the way, Reeves and Jamel Johnson back in the fold and Worthy a very promising sophomore on the rise, Troy’s receiver corps is locked and loaded.

The passing game clicked last fall, yet Troy still took a serious nosedive offensively. Why? Because for the first time in several years, the offense lacked any balance. While Troy is well known for its high-test passing game, the Trojans are at their best when the running game carries a hefty portion of the load. The running game disappeared last fall: Troy went from 54th nationally in rushing in 2010 to 117th last fall, losing nearly 70 yards per game off its total. This needs to be repaired, though the blame for the decline falls both on the offensive line and the defense – the latter forced Troy to turn predominately to the pass in order to keep pace on the scoreboard.

The returning running backs have a proven track record of production. Senior Shawn Southward (556 yards, 4 touchdowns) has led Troy in rushing in each of his first three years. He’s a back Troy needs to feed: Southward is at his best – in terms of yards per carry, longer runs – when given nine or more carries, as he’s shown over the last few seasons. Southward (27 receptions for 249 yards) is also a gifted receiver with additional room for growth as one of Robinson’s safety valves. While Troy did miss DuJuan Harris last fall, senior D.J. Taylor (367 yards, 6 scores) – all 230 pounds of him, though it may be more – is the bigger, bruising back the Trojans need in short-yardage situations and as a change of pace.

The offense isn’t broken. Last year’s decline was an aberration, even if Troy won’t instantly revert back to its 2006-10 form without first addressing some lingering concerns along the offensive line. If the line does round into form, however, the Trojans have the quarterback, the receiver corps and the backfield punch to move back into the top slice of the Sun Belt. And they’ll need to, seeing that the S.B.C. has suddenly become more defined by offensive excellence than any non-B.C.S. conference in college football.

The Trojans will make a slight tweak on defense in an effort to fix their recent woes. While Troy will continue running a 4-3 system, Rowell will utilize one hybrid end-linebacker instead of starting two traditional ends. While this end will technically be a down lineman, the hope is that moving a speedier, quicker linebacker into the position will give Troy a bit more burst up front, helping out an anemic pass rush. Even with a first-team all-Sun Belt pick at end in Jonathan Massaquoi – an early draft entrant – Troy still finished 7th in the Sun Belt and 88th nationally in sacks. Want to help out a porous back seven? Then get to the quarterback.

Senior Jacoby Thomas, a former reserve at weak side linebacker, will step into the newly-christened hybrid end role. He’s a good fit. Thomas has solid size, at about 250 pounds, and as a linebacker, showed some ability to get pressure in the backfield (19 tackles, 5.5 for loss). Tony Davis (34 tackles, 6.0 for loss) will serve as the more traditional end after being forced to play inside last fall; far too small for tackle, Davis will provide a bigger impact on the outside. Get to know Thomas and Davis; along with junior Brandon Timmons and a slew of redshirt freshman, they’ll be tasked with beefing up Troy’s pass rush.

The interior of the line will have a slightly new look. Davis’ move outside opens up increased roles for juniors John Clark, Aaron Williams and Shermane TeArt, a threesome that split time in the rotation last fall. Two of the three will start, with Clark and Williams the starters at the end of spring ball, but all will play – as will redshirt freshman D.J. Johnson and senior Kyle Lucas. Defensive tackle is also one of several positions due to for an influx of JUCO talent. Two transfers, Xavier Melton and Derrek Upshaw, will have every opportunity to crack into the two-deep.

Rowell will replace middle linebacker Xavier Lamb with senior Brannon Bryan (82 tackles), who moves inside from the weak side. I think that Bryan’s experience at outside linebacker will serve him well in his new spot: He’s inheriting some big shoes, but he has the right size to take on blocks and has shown the ability to make plays in space. Angelo Hadley’s move to safety – permanent, I think – will give Kannoris Davis (60 tackles) the starting job on the strong side. The pair split time last year, with Davis making eight starts but Hadley starting each of Troy’s last three games. With Thomas now moving down to end, the Trojans can go with Dimetri Miles, Wayland Coleman-Dancer or Mark Wilson on the weak side. Miles was the starter heading into the spring game, so here’s guessing that sticks as the Trojans start the regular season.

So: the secondary. It’s not a good situation, even with an all-Sun Belt pick in Brynden Trawick (team-leading 123 tackles) at strong safety. Last fall, Troy ranked 101st nationally in passing plays of 20 or more yards allowed, 117th in passing plays of 30 or more yards, 114th in plays of 40 or more yards and 106th in plays of 50 or more yards. In short, the Trojans did not make things difficult for opposing quarterbacks inside and out of Sun Belt play. This needs to change, of course, but it won’t unless the Trojans get more pressure on the quarterback.

You don’t want your strong safety – or any defensive back – to lead the team in tackles, as did Trawick last fall. But you do like to know that you have a solid last line of defense should the front seven falter; Trawick is a bit of security blanket in the running game, but you’d like him to do less. I also like Troy’s decision to move Hadley to safety, seeing that he was a bit undersized to handle the running game down at linebacker. Speaking of security blankets, Hadley is there for Troy in case senior Barry Valcin can’t return to full health. A major contributor in 2009, Valcin has missed extensive time after a fairly nasty leg and ankle injury suffered prior to the start of the 2010 season.

Without getting too bogged down, here’s what Troy needs: Trawick to do less a run-stopper, more in coverage; Valcin to get back to full strength; and senior cornerback Bryan Willis to recapture his prior form. Willis was an all-conference pick as a freshman, but has been largely unable to build upon his strong debut. Sophomore Ethan Davis, a two-game starter in 2011, is penciled into the starting cornerback spot on the other side. As of now, however, I’m not sure that Troy is ready to give him the keys to the starting job.

Position battle(s) to watch

Offensive line Troy did a fine job protecting the quarterback in 2011, which wasn’t surprising: the Trojans had all-conference pick James Brown anchoring the line at left tackle. But the Trojans were abysmal in the running game, exhibiting a passive and unimposing approach to opening up holes on the ground. It gets worse: Brown is gone, along with center Zach Swindall, leaving Troy in a position where it must improve without its two strongest linemen. There’s no reason to think that Troy can continue to do such a nice job keeping Robinson clean without Brown holding down the blind side. In addition, there’s little reason to believe that this offensive line can simply flip the switch and become more physical in the running game while replacing two multiple-year stalwarts.

From where I’m standing, the offensive line is a significant concern. The new leader up front will be senior left guard Kyle Wilborn, though he missed spring ball due to injury. Wilborn is key for two reasons: one, he’s the most experienced returning lineman; and two, his experience will come in handy with a new starter at left tackle. Brown’s replacement will be long-armed senior Jarred Fleming, who made three starts at right tackle last fall. Obviously, Troy is going to see a drop in production at the position – even though it would be foolish to say that Fleming, a former JUCO transfer, doesn’t have the potential for a nice senior season.

The right side of the line returns intact, with sophomores Zach Johnson at guard and Terrance Jones at tackle, leaving Troy only needing to fill Swindall’s shoes at center. No competition here: Andrew Phillips, last year’s understudy, will move into the starting lineup. In all, Troy’s line will feature three seniors – two former JUCO transfers – and two sophomores. The youngsters have promise, Wilborn is a keeper and Fleming is intriguing, if nothing else. But the line is a worry. Can a slightly new group become more physical overnight? The health of the offense hinges on the answer.

Game(s) to watch

There are winnable games on this schedule, though a few come on the road: U.A.B., North Texas, Florida Atlantic and Middle Tennessee, for example. Seeing that Troy has some worries on both sides of the ball, would the Trojans rather get those teams at home and the Sun Belt’s upper half on the road? The non-conference slate is predictably fierce, though Mississippi State does come to Troy.

Season breakdown & prediction

In a nutshell This won’t last. Troy won’t stay down for long. I refuse to believe that after two decades of rampant success – and five years as the Sun Belt’s top dog – the Trojans are entering a long, extended slide into bottom-of-the-league territory. That’s not going to happen. What I do think will occur, however, is another season of atypical results: Troy again has issues to address, and given the lingering concerns, it’s safe to say that the Trojans don’t quite match up with the Sun Belt’s upper crust. But I can’t quite write this team off – though I am predicting a fifth-place finish in the S.B.C. and another bowl-less season. The offense has tremendous talent and athleticism at the skill positions. Likewise, there is some speed on defense. But three factors loom large: the offensive line, the pass rush and the secondary. The Trojans need the first to provide some much-needed balance on offense. The second pair go hand in hand; if the pass rush improves, the secondary might be a bit more stingy than it was a year ago. This is me hedging my bets, and I’d only lean towards the side of optimism when it comes to a program – like Troy – that has experienced only one down year after five such strong seasons. Troy will be back, because Troy is built too well and coached too well to disappear entirely. Unfortunately, the Sun Belt’s top quartet are stronger in 2012.

Dream season The Trojans look better from the start. After rolling past U.A.B. in the season opener, Troy knocks off Mississippi State and Louisiana-Lafayette at home, setting the tone for a nine-win season complete with the Sun Belt title.

Nightmare season The offense remains unbalanced and the defense again fails to mount any sort of resistance against strong Sun Belt foes like Florida International, Arkansas State and Western Kentucky. Troy continues its swoon, even dropping one win off last year’s total.

In case you were wondering

Where do Troy fans congregate? The premier site for Troy football chatter is Go Troy Trojans, which leads the pack by leaps and bounds. You can also find recruiting coverage at Troy Insider. And please don’t forget about Drew Champlin’s blog for The Dothan Eagle.

Troy’s all-name nominee LB Wayland Coleman-Dancer.

Word Count

Through 25 teams 84,147.

Up Next

Who is No. 99? The head coach with the most career wins in the history of tomorrow’s program wasn’t elected into his own conference’s hall of fame until five years after he was named to the College Football Hall of Fame, which should tell you quite a bit about the latter’s puzzling election practices. As discussed ad nauseam in this space.

Don’t bother looking: Howard Schnellenberger and Erk Russell remain off the ballot. That’s the bad news. The good news is that there are truly no undeserving members of the College Football Hall of Fame, though there are certainly nominees — or should-be nominees excluded due to some puzzling nomination criteria — more deserving than others. The National Football Foundation, which runs the Hall of Fame, released its 2012 ballot in late February. The ballot consisted of 76 former players and 8 former coaches; there were four Heisman winners among the nominees, and three of the eight coaches won at least one national championship. If you remember, my personal criteria for inclusion in the Hall of Fame were fairly simple:

Any player that wins the Heisman gets a free pass to the Hall of Fame – not including Reggie Bush, though I could probably be swayed to place a check beside his name based solely on the way he dominated the F.B.S. over the final two seasons of his college career. Any player that is the best at his position in the history of a major program also gets the call.

Was he the best player in the country – as we know, this doesn’t always translate to the Heisman – at any point during his college career? Come on down. What about the most valuable part of a transcendent, national title-winning team, or a team that dominated its conference over a multiple-year span? Also in. Using these standards, I gave my vote to the following 2012 nominees:

LB Erick Anderson, Michigan; DE Tedy Bruschi, Arizona; QB Eric Crouch, Nebraska; QB Ty Detmer, B.Y.U.; RB D.J. Dozier, Penn State; QB Tommie Frazier, Nebraska; K Charlie Gogolak, Princeton; DB Jerry Gray, Texas; WR Raghib Ismail, Notre Dame; FB Jim Otis, Ohio State; OT Orlando Pace, Ohio State; NG Mike Ruth, Boston College; LB Mark Simoneau, Kansas State; OT Matt Stinchcomb, Georgia; QB Vinny Testaverde, Miami (Fla.); LB Derrick Thomas, Alabama; RB Lorenzo White, Michigan State; and QB Danny Wuerffel, Florida.

The coaching criteria in use by the Hall of Fame are foolish, nonsensical, unfair and biased towards coaches who take the easy path, not the road less traveled. The Hall of Fame purports to highlight the greatest figures in the history of the sport but excludes coaches like Schnellenberger and Russell from even being considered for inclusion; this, in effect, makes the Hall of Fame an almost-but-not-quite Hall of Fame.

Among the eight nominate head coaches, I cast my vote for Wayne Hardin, who might be the finest coach in the history of two programs, Temple and Navy; Jimmy Johnson; Bill McCartney, a national title winner at Colorado; Jim Carlen, a winner at West Virginia, Texas Tech and South Carolina, back when each was not the program it is today; and Phil Fulmer, another title winner.

So who made the cut? The Hall of Fame’s class of 2012 named three coaches: Fulmer, Johnson and R.C. Slocum — the latter is the second-best coach in the modern era of Texas A&M football, trailing only Bear Bryant. Another 14 players got the call:

WR Art Monk, Syracuse; RB Charles Alexander, L.S.U.; TE Dave Casper, Notre Dame; DL Gabe Rivera, Texas Tech; S Greg Myers, Colorado State; WR Hal Bledsole, U.S.C.; OG John Wooten, Colorado; OT Jonathan Ogden, U.C.L.A.; LB Mark Simoneau, Kansas State; RB Otis Armstrong, Purdue; S Scott Thomas, Air Force; QB Steve Bartkowski, California; QB Ty Detmer, B.Y.U.; and QB Tommy Kramer, Rice.

One note on voting criteria that I was unaware of prior to this afternoon: According to Ivan Maisel of ESPN — who knows a thing or two about how this process works — the Hall of Fame won’t elect players from the same school in back-to-back years. If that is a rule the voting committee takes to the bank, that would eliminate any nominees from Nebraska, Michigan or Ohio State, among others. Each had one former player or coach elected as part of last year’s class.

Regardless of that silly rule, the following players will wait at least one more year before being elected to the Hall of Fame: Frazier, Pace, Wuerffel, Derrick Thomas, Testaverde and Otis, among so many other deserving candidates.

Pace was the starting offensive tackle on Sports Illustrated’s all-century team in 1999, so he could play a little football. Even with the recent proliferation of highly productive college quarterbacks, Wuerffel’s career numbers remain among the most prolific in the game’s history. As for Frazier…

How many tackles can one man break? Not enough to get into the College Football Hall of Fame, apparently. Frazier is the greatest run-first quarterback in the history of college football. He went 33-2 as a starter; won four straight conference championships; was a two-time Orange Bowl M.V.P. and the 1996 Fiesta Bowl M.V.P.; threw for more than 4,000 yards and rushed for nearly another 3,000; and was the leader of the most dominant team in college football history.

Again, there are no undeserving inductees, just candidates more worthy of induction. Congratulations to the 17-member class of 2012. Next year, the Hall of Fame might induct a few nominees wholly deserving of having their names officially etched in the sport’s history. Until then, we’ll just enshrine each former player in our own personal hall of fame.

And now? We’ll never know what Rogers was capable of achieving at B.C., whether as a result of his own medical issues or a poor working relationship with the rest of the staff, but in Doug Martin, B.C. has its best offensive coordinator of the Frank Spaziani era.

Most know Martin as the former head coach at Kent State, but it’s in his capacity as a coordinator that he’s made his biggest mark: first at East Carolina, then for one season with the Golden Flashes and again last fall, at New Mexico State, he’s shown an ability to move the ball consistently in both the passing game and on the ground.

Martin has also indicated an ability to provide single-season offensive turnarounds, as illustrated over his lone season in Las Cruces. The Aggies had scored a combined 337 points over DeWayne Walker’s first two years with the program; last fall, Martin’s offense scored 319 points – an average of 24.5 points per game – to tie San Jose State for sixth in the WAC.

New Mexico State finished 25th nationally in passing, averaging 273.2 yards per game, and tossed 24 touchdowns as a team, nine more than the Aggies had compiled over the previous two seasons combined.

It’s clear that Martin was bogged down in the details at Kent State. He was one of many MAC hires – or Sun Belt hires, or non-B.C.S. conference hires – that quickly bring an also-ran into competitiveness but are unable to get a program over the hump. The Golden Flashes flirted with bowl eligibility, winning at least five games four times from 2004-10, but never broke through.

That doesn’t matter to B.C. and this offense. In fact, his somewhat disappointing stint at Kent State only increases Martin’s appeal to a remade offensive staff, which includes Jim Bollman as the new line coach, Sean Desai as the new backfield coach and Aaron Smith as the new receivers coach.

In addition, former line coach Sean Devine will shift to working with the tight ends, where he’ll replace Brock, who left to become Kyle Flood’s coordinator and receivers coach at Rutgers. The entire staff has been reworked to revolve around Martin and his ability to coordinate a winning offense. His head coaching experience will come in handy, in short.

There’s a reason this hire qualifies as Spaziani’s best since he was promoted into the top spot in 2009 – if we don’t count promoting linebackers coach Bill McGovern to defensive coordinator, which was an absolute no-brainer. The B.C. offense is and has been broken; if nothing else, Martin has the ability to turn this ship around.

His offense will look familiar. Martin’s system is extremely familiar to the one run by Steve Logan at B.C. from 2007-8; Martin was an assistant at E.C.U. during Logan’s entire 11-year run with the program. It’s not a coincidence that the Eagles have bottomed out since Logan left following the 2008 season – after Spaziani was hired – but in Martin, perhaps the Eagles will begin moving the ball like they did under Logan’s watch.

But there’s no Matt Ryan on this roster, of course, and the offensive line is far less imposing than in recent past. The receiver corps is largely devoid of big-play ability. Spaziani recently dismissed the most prolific rusher in school history, though that move hurts more in theory, less in production.

Again, this is where Martin’s recent history comes in handy. The Eagles will play a tougher schedule, but it’s not like Martin was working with a loaded roster of skill players at New Mexico State. Nor that he had stars at E.C.U., or at Kent State, where he tweaked his offense to fit the Golden Flashes’ run-first personnel.

But before putting a laurel on Martin, remember that he’s not a miracle worker – he’s just the program’s best coordinator since his former boss, Logan. However, Martin is the key to any projected rebound B.C. plans to take in 2012: his offense will determine whether the Eagles can reverse the program’s three-year decline into the bottom section of the Atlantic division.

There is a disconnect from reality. This is clear when listening to athletic director Gene DeFilippo, who says things like, “I’m really excited about the future of Boston College football,” and “[Frank Spaziani] is the best coach that we’ve had in the 15 years that we’ve been here,” and “our future here is very, very bright.” Anyone who has witnessed the Eagles’ rapid decline can attest otherwise: Boston College’s future — with the program and athletic department as currently constituted — is strikingly bleak; Spaziani may be the only coach DeFilippo has seen in each of his 15 years with the university, and he may be the best defensive coordinator B.C. has had since Tom O’Brien remade the program, but no, to call him the “best coach” since 1997 ignores our own two eyes and those helpful items called facts, which state otherwise. The reality of this situation is that everything that was done has been undone, everything that was achieved has been forgotten, and Boston College football as it was is no longer Boston College football as it is. Excited about the future? Please.

Last year’s prediction

There’s Kuechly, who is terrific, as well as a handful of blossoming underclassmen dotting the defensive line and the secondary. So what’s the problem? My biggest worry is with the face of the program: I’m not sure if Spaziani is up to the challenge of leading B.C. back to the forefront of the Atlantic division. A second worry: this schedule. The Eagles must start at least 4-1 if they plan on keeping this bowl streak alive, as the slate from Clemson on is extremely difficult. I think B.C. can do just that, but I don’t think this is much better than a .500 team.

2011 recap

In a nutshell For a good portion of last fall, it seemed as if Massachusetts would be the only team Boston College would beat all season. The Eagles did unseat the Minutemen, 45-17, but the win was sandwiched on either side by three losses. The first three were undeniably embarrassing — Northwestern, U.C.F. by 27 points and Duke — and probably came at the wrong time: B.C. needed a shot of confidence, and opening with three straight losses cut the season right down in its tracks. That the Eagles closed with three wins in five games does absolutely nothing to alter the fact that last fall was an outrageous disgrace for a program riding a run of 12 consecutive bowl berths. Also disgraceful: this offense. The Eagles gained less than 300 yards of offense in half of their games; failed to score 20 points against 9 of their 11 F.B.S. opponents; threw for more than 200 yards only twice, and not once after Sept. 17; and turned the ball over two or more times in six games. And before following the national script that says that this defense was again strong, consider this: Boston College finished eighth in the A.C.C. in total defense, 11th in pass defense and sixth in run defense. Just a bad, bad team.

High point The final three weeks of the season. The Eagles beat N.C. State, 14-10, on Nov. 12. A week later, the Eagles hung fairly tight with Notre Dame but lost, 16-14 — the score looks a little better thanks to a late, meaningless B.C. touchdown. In the season finale, the Eagles topped Miami (Fla.), 24-17. The win was only B.C.’s fifth all-time against the Hurricanes, against 23 losses, and the second on the road. I think you can remember the first.

Low point Choose any loss. It doesn’t matter. While the year had yet to fully run off the rails, my vote — in a tie — goes to U.C.F. and Duke. The Knights, who trounced the Eagles by 27 points, won four games on the year. Duke is Duke, and B.C. shouldn’t lose to Duke.

Tidbit Boston College has failed to score more than 28 points in any game against F.B.S. competition over the last two seasons. Prior to 2010, B.C. had not gone a full season without scoring 29 or more points against at least one F.B.S. foe since 1966, when the team failed to score more than 26 points in each of its 10 games. You could say the streak dated back to only 1979 — only 1979 — seeing that the Eagles’ high-water mark that fall, a 29-point showing, came against Holy Cross. But at the time, the Crusaders were a Division I program; Holy Cross wouldn’t move down a level until 1982.

Tidbit (Atlantic division edition) The Eagles’ poor season pushed them behind Clemson for the best A.C.C. record among Atlantic division teams since 2005. B.C. went 30-18 mark in A.C.C. play from 2005-10; Clemson was 28-20. But after going 6-2 — the league doesn’t count the A.C.C. title game towards the overall conference record — while B.C. went 3-5, the Tigers were able to surpass the Eagles: Clemson is now 34-22 over the last seven years in the A.C.C. while B.C. is 33-23.

Former players in the N.F.L.

20 LB Alex Albright (Dallas), DE Ron Brace (New England), OT Anthony Castonzo (Indianapolis), OT Gosder Cherilus (Detroit), LB Jo-Lonn Dunbar (St. Louis), LB Rob Francois (Green Bay), DT Antonio Garay (San Diego), QB Matt Hasselbeck (Tennessee), LB Mark Herzlich (New York Giants), LB Mathias Kiwanuka (New York Giants), C Dan Koppen (New England), LB Mark Kuechly (Carolina), FB James McCluskey (Oakland), TE Ryan Purvis (New York Giants), NT B.J. Raji (Green Bay), QB Matt Ryan (Atlanta), DE Darrik Scafe (San Diego), OG Chris Snee (New York Giants), C Matt Tennant (New Orleans), OT Jeremy Trueblood (Tampa Bay).

Arbitrary top five list

F.B.S. head coaches with a -z in their last name
1. Rich Rodriguez, Arizona.
2. Gene Chizik, Auburn.
3. Kirk Ferentz, Iowa.
4. Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern.
5. Hugh Freeze, Mississippi.

Coaching

Frank Spaziani (Penn State ’69), 19-19 after three seasons at Boston College’s full-time head coach. He must be commended for the job he did in his first season. The Eagles didn’t miss a beat despite the late change in the coaching staff and several off-field distractions, and won at least eight games for the ninth straight season. But the last two seasons have been disastrous, particularly in terms of the issues with Spaziani’s in-game and staff decisions, and the bloom is off this rose. Is he dedicated to this university? Yes, and that does separate him from each of his two predecessors. Has he shown any ability to lead B.C. into the A.C.C. title conversation? No, and that completely separates him from each of his two predecessors. While Spaziani had no head coach experience prior to his being hired in early 2009, he bought more than 30 years’ experience as an assistant on the F.B.S. level. The most significant period of his career has taken place at Boston College. His tenure with the Eagles began with a stretch as the team’s running backs coach from 1997 to 1998, when he was part of Tom O’Brien’s original staff. After that two-year stint – seasons in which B.C. combined to go 8-14 – Spaziani was promoted to defensive coordinator. Boston College reached bowl play in each of the following 11 seasons, only twice winning fewer than eight games and twice reaching double-digit wins. In addition to his extensive resume with the Eagles, Spaziani spent a combined 17 years as an assistant under George Welsh, first at Navy (1975-81), then Virginia (1982-91). Spaziani had likely achieved enough with the Eagles to deserve the head coaching job in 2007, which instead went to Jeff Jagodzinski. Two years later, he became the safest choice for the job. His ties to DeFillipo have cemented Spaziani’s job security, but he has done nothing to deserve the amount of confidence the university has in his ability to turn this thing around.

Players to watch

Once again, B.C. will have a new offensive coordinator. This makes four in two years, including two that served in the position last fall: Kevin Rogers was hired to replace Gary Tranquill, but health issues – or some issues – forced him to step aside in September; he was replaced by tight ends coach Dave Brock, who left the program over the winter. The new coordinator, Doug Martin, has been around the block, at East Carolina, Kent State and New Mexico State, and is likely the best hire B.C. could make under the circumstances – not many coaches would enlist under a head coach with questionable job security.

But Martin wanted back in, and in B.C. found a partner more than willing to give him the opportunity. His offense will greatly resemble the system run in Chestnut Hill by Steve Logan, Martin’s coaching mentor and, from 2007-8, the Eagles’ coordinator. This system will tend towards the pass but remain committed to the running game, perhaps lending some balance and explosiveness to an offense lacking in either category – particularly the latter – over the last three years.

The first beneficiary of Martin’s arrival is junior quarterback Chase Rettig. Of all the skill players present over the last two seasons, Rettig’s development has been the most stunted by the musical chairs at coordinator. He seemed to be gaining a degree of comfort late in his freshman season, when he started the last seven games of the year, but exhibited little progress last fall. As a sophomore, Rettig completed less than 50 percent of his attempts five times, threw at least one interception in six straight A.C.C. games and cracked the 200-yard mark only twice, against Northwestern and Duke.

Rettig needs to improve. In Martin, he has a coach capable of taking him to the next level. The ability is there, one would think, even if Rettig’s hot streaks have been buried under cold spell after cold spell. Based on the information on hand – what we’ve seen from Rettig and his former coaches – the question isn’t so much about the quarterback but the coaching; seeing that Martin is an upgrade over the triumvirate of Tranquill, Rogers and Brock, it stands to reason that Rettig will have the finest season of his career in 2012. One reason to pull back on the expectations: this is Rettig’s third system is as many years – four if we count high school – so there will be a learning curve.

B.C. knows which three receivers it’ll target in the passing game. By extension, the rest of the A.C.C. is also aware that when Rettig does drop back to pass, it’s highly probable that any attempted pass is going in the direction of senior Colin Larmond (34 receptions for 568 yards) or juniors Bobby Swigert (44 for 462) and Alex Amidon (20 for 220). The point: B.C. could afford to spread the ball around. The Eagles will in this offense, but outside of the top three, there is not much in the way of proven reliability. It’s time for at least one of several unproductive receivers to step into a larger role; doing so would help this passing game reach its full potential.

Johnathan Coleman, a junior with picture-perfect size – a bit of a rarity on this receiver corps – will be given every opportunity to break into the rotation. Likewise with redshirt freshman Brian Miller, who could also be used in a hybrid receiver-tight end role. Sophomore Spiffy Evans, who made some impact in the return game last fall, could also take on an increased role. Unfortunately, until B.C. adds depth it’s hard to see Martin’s offense running at full capacity – in the passing game, at least. The top three are fine targets, as is senior tight end Chris Pantale (21 catches for 236 yards), but they’re not striking fear into A.C.C. defensive backs. B.C. won’t move the ball via the big play – for the most part – so the offense needs to go six or seven deep at receiver and tight end. Coleman, Miller and others need to step up their games.

This year’s line, like last year’s group, is not the star-studded line of the program’s recent past. In addition, B.C. will undergo a transition on two fronts: with a new line coach, Jim Bollman, and in this new system, which will slightly tweak the Eagles’ blocking scheme. The good news is that after a tough start to last season, this line began rounding into form during A.C.C. play. In addition, the Eagles return four of last fall’s five starters and six linemen with adequate experience altogether. The line will be better. Will it be good enough?

Another question: Emmett Cleary or John Wetzel at left tackle? New summer, same question. The duo battled for the blind side spot a year ago, with Wetzel earning the starting role and Cleary starting at right tackle. The pair may shift spots as seniors, if the spring was any indication – Cleary was on the left, Wetzel on the right. The lone full-time starter who must be replaced is center Mark Spinney, though B.C. also lost swing guard Nathan Richman, who started two games as a senior. B.C. could either start sophomore Andy Gallik at center – he made three starts there last fall – or move right guard Ian White inside, though the latter option would leave the Eagles very thin at right guard. Sophomore Bobby Vardaro is back at left guard, so keeping White at guard and Gallik in the lineup likely gives B.C. its best starting five.

A few notes on this defense. Even with Luke Kuechly hitting everything that moved, last year’s group finished in the bottom half of the A.C.C. in run defense, pass defense, yards allowed per play, forced turnovers, tackles for loss, sacks – finishing last in the F.B.S. – third down defense and red zone defense. Last year’s defense landed a pass thanks to its reputation, the play of one sublime linebacker and the overall incompetence B.C. flashed on the offensive side of the ball. Last year’s defense was not good, whether you base that statement on objective comparison to the rest of the A.C.C. or against the program’s recent past of stinginess.

How does B.C. retool without Kuechly? Put another way, how does B.C. replace the greatest defensive player in school history? You don’t, and B.C. can’t. All the Eagles and defensive coordinator Bill McGovern can do is pass the baton to the next in line and hope that the defense, as a team, can replace Kuechly’s lost production. No one defender will fill his shoes; as a team, however, B.C. can lose a player of his caliber and still make a slight improvement on defense. Can the Eagles move back into the upper echelon of the A.C.C., let alone the top slice of the F.B.S.? No, I wouldn’t think so. But the defense could improve to the point where it makes things slightly more difficult for the opposition, which was rarely the case a year ago.

Kuechly’s replacement will be sophomore Sean Duggan (39 tackles), a three-game starter on the weak side as a rookie. He made those starts in place of junior Kevin Pierre-Louis (74 tackles), the team’s leading returning tackler. Pierre-Louis is one defender who must do more in 2012: beyond the tackles, Kuechly was also a major disrupter on third down and in coverage. Pierre-Louis, who has all-A.C.C. potential, and strong side linebacker Steele Devitto (72 tackles, 3.5 for loss), a returning starter, will flank Duggan. B.C. knows what Pierre-Louis and Devitto will bring to the table. McGovern and Spaziani also know what Duggan will bring to the table: 100 tackles, some nice athleticism, room for growth.

But… B.C. knows that there’s no Kuechly rising up through the ranks. This isn’t surprising. Nonetheless, replacing Kuechly won’t be as easy as replacing Montel Harris, which I’ll touch on below. It goes beyond numbers: it’s about losing your rock, your flag-bearing middle linebacker, your star and your leader, and even if Duggan has an all-conference sophomore season, there’s no ignoring the fact that B.C. will be without a linebacker – a player, perhaps – unparalleled in the program’s history.

Let’s step out of that negativity and focus on one major positive: Kaleb Ramsey is back at defensive tackle. Probably. Ramsey landed a hardship waiver from the N.C.A.A. that will allow him to play in 2012, but he was still limited during the spring following last September’s foot injury. If he’s healthy – and committed to giving 100 percent, or somewhere close to 100 percent – Ramsey can be an all-conference pick. If he’s healthy, B.C. can team Ramsey with senior Dillon Quinn (21 tackles) and promising sophomore Dominic Appiah (36 tackles, 6.5 for loss) to make up a strong interior of the line.

Ramsey’s play will be key. Strong interior play won’t only help keep the Eagles’ linebackers clean – a huge bonus with Duggan stepping into the lineup – but some added push along the middle of the line will help overall end play, which is a question mark heading into the summer. In addition to Kuechly, B.C. also lost end Max Holloway, the team’s most productive down lineman, a year early; unlike Kuechly, Holloway went undrafted. With junior Kasim Edebali (27 tackles) back on one side, the Eagles can turn to one of two sophomores, Brian Mihalik and Mehdi Abdesmad, in Holloway’s old spot. Mihalik and Abdesmad are more promising, but both could have used another year of seasoning.

It got ugly in the secondary last fall. B.C. held only five teams under 220 yards passing and none under 179 yards – and only Maryland, Massachusetts and Miami (Fla.) encountered much in the way of resistance. It’s almost hard to believe, but it’s true: Even with Kuechly gone, the secondary is this defense’s biggest concern. What B.C. needs is a slew of sophomores to play beyond their years, as the Eagles are poised to enter September with only one non-sophomore on the two-deep.

Cornerback is a major concern: there’s potential here, but nothing close to a sure thing. The group’s best is Al Louis-Jean (15 tackles), who flashed potential as a freshman but remains far from a finished product. Likewise with C.J. Jones and Manny Asprilla, two more sophomores thrust into substantial roles ahead of schedule a season ago. Without Donnie Fletcher steadily holding down the opposite side, one of the latter pair – or James McCaffrey, or Ameer Richardson, or Zach Wolfe – must take a huge step forward. The news isn’t much better at safety, though B.C. does return some starting experience in Jim Noel (30 tackles) – the lone senior in the mix – and Sean Sylvia. One surprising addition into the competition at free safety is sophomore Josh Keyes, a converted linebacker.

This isn’t your older brother’s defense. This isn’t your older brother’s defense even if you two are only separated by two years, or if he’s your twin, and you took two years off to backpack through Europe and find yourself before enrolling as a freshman. Vintage B.C. defenses – those that occurred under Spaziani’s watch, by and large – resembled brick walls: not overly flexible, not overly dynamic, but steadfast and true. This defense is a plastic bag: it may stop something, but usually by accident.

Position battle(s) to watch

Running back Spaziani’s decision to dismiss Montel Harris doesn’t greatly impact the Eagles’ bottom line, even if Harris was the most prolific rusher in program history. The offense might be better off turning the ball over to three or four younger backs less impacted by injuries, as was Harris – he missed all but two games of last season after suffering a knee injury against Wake Forest, and reaggravated that same knee in February, keeping him out of spring ball. For B.C., Harris’ dismissal is less tangible than that: It’s more about the symbol of losing one of best players in program history. His departure marked another dark day for the program; the dark days have been rapidly accumulating over the last three years.

No one back is going to step in replicate Harris’ production. But the three top backs can certainly combine for 1,700 yards, especially if the group includes a healthy junior Andre Williams (517 yards, 4 touchdowns). Considered to be Harris’ heir apparent as a freshman, Williams was one of several players limited by injuries during fall camp. If healthy, Williams will team with junior Rolandan Finch (705 yards) and sophomore Tahj Kimble (156 yards) to form the top threesome at the position. Finch can play, as well as carry the load: he had at least 18 carries in five A.C.C. games, including 39 carries for 243 yards in the win over Maryland. Despite Finch’s solid finish to last fall, I’d be surprised if B.C. does hand the running game over to one back – even if this has been the program’s preference over the last few years.

Game(s) to watch

The Eagles must beat Miami (Fla.) and Maryland at home. Conference wins won’t come easy for B.C., so the fact that both of these fellow rebuilding teams travel to Chestnut Hill make them must-win games if the Eagles plan of returning to bowl play. In terms of games that could derail the season, think the Hurricanes, Northwestern and Army. A 2-3 mark after the first Saturday of October could quickly turn into 2-5, which would could then thrust this team into a tailspin.

Season breakdown & prediction

In a nutshell It’s been a steep slide down for Boston College: once an A.C.C. contender, then a pretender, now an afterthought. And make no mistake: B.C. is no more an A.C.C. title contender than is Duke, and like the Blue Devils, will need to turn over an entirely new leaf to reverse the losing and negative culture that has pervaded the program over the last two or three seasons. Everything has fallen apart. The offense lacks any punch. The defense has turned porous. The program lacks any sense of urgency. Consistency, once the bedrock of this program, for better or worse, has left the building. For more than a decade, you’d scramble for reasons why B.C. wouldn’t win at least eight games – you’d rack your brain thinking of reasons why the Eagles couldn’t maintain their pace. Today, you can’t think of one good reason why this team will do anything more than take another step back after last season’s step back, which followed a step back in 2010, which followed a step back in 2009. B.C. has another new offensive coordinator, even if I think Martin is the best one Spaziani has hired yet; lacks play-making skill players; has some issues along the offensive line, which is new; can’t get to the quarterback; has severe concerns in the secondary; and lost the finest defensive player in school history. There are serious issues here, but they pale in comparison to the issues plaguing the program as a whole. B.C. went stale a year ago; now the current leadership is well past its expiration date. It’s decision time for B.C., which can no longer plug along and pretend it’s not raining. It’s time for the university to make some changes.

Dream season Martin is the answer for this offense. The Eagles score 30 or more points seven times, each resulting in victory, and the defense improves to the point where B.C. can win two games where the offense fails to show up. B.C. wins nine games for the first time since 2008.

Nightmare season The loss to Miami doesn’t hurt as bad as the loss to Maine; the latter signals that B.C. has hit rock bottom, if the program isn’t there already. The Eagles rebound to beat Army and Maryland, but that’s it.

In case you were wondering

Where do Boston College fans congregate? There are two big recruiting sites, Eagle Insider and Eagle Action. You should also check out BC Interruption and Eagle in Atlanta, the two best Boston College blogs. And you can add Around the Res and Eagle Outsider to the mix.

Boston College’s all-name nominee WR Spiffy Evans.

Word Count

Through 24 teams 80,583.

Up Next

Who is No. 100? The mayor of the city housing tomorrow’s university has served seven terms in the position, not to mention 22 years in the state’s national guard.

No, it’s not the only reason: the Blue Devils are still lagging far behind the rest of the conference in terms of overall personnel, which is nothing new. But the schedule puts a frown on this season before it even begins — how can Duke possibly snap its current bowl-free streak with only two or three clearly winnable games on the schedule?

The basic point: Duke has the toughest schedule of any team ranked among the bottom 24 in the country. And, I’d imagine, Duke will have the toughest schedule of any team in the A.C.C., especially with Stanford coming during non-conference play. And, when all is said and done, I’d guess that Duke will have one of the 12-15 toughest schedules of any team in the country.

You can wonder how a program like Duke is ever expected to turn the corner with a schedule like this, but don’t waste your time. In all likelihood — unless there’s something we’ve all missed — Duke’s projected corner-turning moment lies in the future, not in 2012. Whether the distant or not-so-distant future depends on a number of other factors, of which this year’s schedule is not one.

But it’s interesting to compare Duke’s schedule to the other 22 teams that make up the current triple-digit portion of the Countdown. I won’t go down the rabbit hole here, but consider: What would Duke’s record be this fall if it played, say, Texas-San Antonio’s schedule? Would the Blue Devils win the WAC, or would they be unable to beat Louisiana Tech, Utah State or San Jose State?

By the end of the summer, I’ll compile a list of the 25 hardest schedules in college football. For now, let’s rank the toughest schedules among the bottom 23 teams, beginning with Duke and continuing through U.T.S.A., which slides into the F.B.S. with games against South Alabama, Texas A&M-Commerce, Georgia State and Northwest Oklahoma State — and that’s just in September. The list:

1. Duke, A.C.C.
2. Kansas, Big 12
3. Massachusetts, MAC
4. U.N.L.V., Mountain West
5. Ball State, MAC
6. UTEP, Conference USA
7. Tulane, Conference USA
8. Idaho, WAC
9. U.A.B., Conference USA
10. Indiana, Big Ten
11. South Alabama, Sun Belt
12. New Mexico, Mountain West
13. Buffalo, MAC
14. North Texas, Sun Belt
15. Rice, Conference USA
16. Texas State, WAC
17. Colorado State, Mountain West
18. Louisiana-Monroe, Sun Belt
19. Florida Atlantic, Sun Belt
20. Akron, MAC
21. Memphis, Conference USA
22. Middle Tennessee State, Sun Belt
23. Texas-San Antonio, WAC

The issue here is proportion. What is tough for one may be easier for another; hence the question of how good Duke would be in the WAC or Sun Belt, or whether Louisiana Tech would win games in A.C.C. play. But if you keep the idea of proportion in mind, it’s possible to weigh one schedule against another, even if two teams inhabit different conferences or different tiers in the F.B.S.

As if simply getting another shot – a much-deserved shot, mind you – wasn’t enough. For Dan McCarney, North Texas has become the gift that keeps on giving. There’s another turn as a head coach, five years after his ridiculous dismissal at Iowa State. There’s the new on-campus facility, Apogee Stadium, where the Mean Green have already made themselves at home. Then there’s the new conference affiliation: Sun Belt out, Conference USA in, beginning in 2013. You’re welcome, coach. Not that’s it been anywhere near a one-sided relationship: McCarney has given the Mean Green an identity, a sense of purpose and some much-needed direction. Not bad for the first 12 months of any relationship, right? Well, there was the stroke McCarney suffered in February, but as he put it, that was nothing a little splash of vodka couldn’t cure.

Last year’s prediction

Let’s take it one year at a time, and remember that North Texas still has a little ways to go before returning to Sun Belt contention, a process that includes reversing the type of losing culture McCarney inherits in his debut season. Only a little ways, mind you: the Sun Belt isn’t good, U.N.T. not that bad, and I can see the Mean Green competing for four wins in conference play and factoring in the Sun Belt race. The schedule starts very poorly for the Mean Green, ensuring a poor start, but look for the team to play well down the stretch — not just as the schedule lessens, but as the players begin to understand what is asked of them by this new staff.

2011 recap

In a nutshell North Texas beat a B.C.S. conference opponent for the first time since destroying Baylor early in 2003. But that B.C.S. conference team was Indiana. North Texas won more than three games – won five games, in fact – for the first time since 2004. But the five defeated teams combined for 11 wins on the season: Indiana and Florida Atlantic with one, Middle Tennessee State with two, Troy with three and Louisiana-Monroe with four. Each of the seven teams that beat North Texas went on to become bowl eligible; three, including Alabama, won at least 10 games. But North Texas still lost the seven games. Good news, bad news? A little bit, if you view last fall as a stand-alone season. But if you view the year in the framework of where U.N.T. stood prior to McCarney’s arrival, well, you see a different picture.

High point A 59-7 win over Middle Tennessee State in the season finale. A meaningless win, in the grand scheme of things, but a terrific way for U.N.T. to end the regular season. It was also about how they won: the Mean Green ripped the Blue Raiders to shreds.

Low point There was no what-could-have-been loss; the Mean Green’s losses came by an average of 23.0 points per game. But knowing that woeful M.T.S.U. awaited in the season finale, losing to Western Kentucky at home on Nov. 19 likely stands as last season’s low point. The loss officially ended the Mean Green’s bowl hopes.

Tidbit The Mean Green’s first season at Apogee Stadium went well. North Texas went 4-2 at home last fall, the program’s best home record since 2004, when it went 4-1 en route to the Sun Belt title. Another note: U.N.T. went 1-15 at home from 2008-10. The Mean Green were also a more potent offensive team at home, averaging 32.7 points per game while in Denton against only 17.0 points per game on the road.

Tidbit (recruiting edition) Using the rankings compiled by Rivals.com, North Texas has not compiled a recruiting class ranked higher than third in the Sun Belt over the last 11 years. That high-water mark came in 2008, when the Mean Green’s class included eight three-star recruits. U.N.T. has finished fifth in the Sun Belt five times, in 2010, 2009, 2005, 2003 and 2002; seventh once, in 2006; and sixth four times, in 2004, 2006, 2011 and 2012. This is one area where the program must improve in order to hang with its new rivals in Conference USA.

Former players in the N.F.L.

4 RB Lance Dunbar (Dallas), LB Craig Robertson (Cleveland), TE Draylen Ross (Cleveland), OG Brian Waters (New England).

Arbitrary top five list

American sports franchises with green in their logo
1. Boston Celtics.
2. Green Bay Packers.
3. Miami Dolphins.
4. Oakland Athletics.
5. New York Jets.

Coaching

Dan McCarney (Iowa ’75), 5-7 after one season with North Texas. It was about time that McCarney got a second shot at running his own program, as he achieved enough over 12 seasons at Iowa State to more than deserve another opportunity. As was the case in Denton last fall – and will continue to be the case, one would think – the odds were stacked against McCarney and the Cyclones; nevertheless, McCarney left in 2006 as the program’s all-time leader in wins (56) and bowl appearances (5), making a pretty easy claim to being the finest coach in I.S.U. history. Among his other highlights in Ames: 2004 Big 12 Coach of the Year; five of the program’s 17 seven-win seasons; the first nine-win season in 94 years in 2000; and, that same year, the program’s first ever bowl win. So you can understand why the masses were left shaking their heads when Iowa State opted to dismiss McCarney in late 2006, when his Cyclones slipped to 4-8 after back-to-back bowl berths. He was snatched up quickly: McCarney spent one year at South Florida as the assistant head coach and defensive line coach before spending the last three seasons at Florida in the same capacity. The Gators won the national championship in 2008, McCarney’s debut season in Gainesville, and returned to the B.C.S. a year later. But it’s not the national title and B.C.S. experience that made McCarney so attractive to U.N.T.; it helps, but it’s far from his defining characteristic. What defines McCarney is what he achieved with the Cyclones, as well as his work as a Haden Fry assistant at Iowa from 1977-89 and under Barry Alvarez at Wisconsin from 1990-94. It’s about his experience winning when others said he couldn’t, whether at Iowa, Wisconsin or Iowa State. If he can win there he can win in Denton.

Tidbit (coaching edition) The biggest change on McCarney’s staff is at defensive coordinator, where former U.C.F. coordinator John Skladany replaces Clint Bowen, who left to take a position under Charlie Weis at his alma mater, Kansas. Skladany’s hire is noteworthy for two reasons: one, Skladany’s two defenses at U.C.F. were absolutely superb; and two, he was the defensive coordinator at Iowa State throughout McCarney’s entire tenure. If any coach could be called McCarney’s right-hand man, it would be Skladany. In he and Mike Canales – McCarney was extremely wise to retain his services last winter – at defensive and offensive coordinator, respectively, North Texas is in very good hands. North Texas also hired former Montana State assistant Noah Joseph, who was a graduate assistant under McCarney at Iowa State, as safeties coach. Joseph replaces Anthony Weaver, who left to take a position with the New York Jets.

Players to watch

I think that North Texas can feel secure about its situation at quarterback, which is a new feeling for the program: you might need to go back five seasons, all the way to 2008, to find the last time the Mean Green held some degree of confidence in their starting quarterback. The heightened sense of relaxation has less to do with the production U.N.T. landed from junior Derek Thompson last fall – he was fairly spotty, though he did limit his turnovers – than with the idea that the entire quarterback corps should be far more familiar with Canales’ offense in their third season in his system. Greater familiarity with the system will lead to increased confidence when under center, which will in turn lead to increased productivity.

One of Thompson’s biggest issues is remaining healthy, something he’s struggled doing over the last two years. He suffered a season-ending injury in 2010 just as he was moving into the starting lineup; he missed another game last fall, sitting out the loss to Tulsa. Another issue is his consistency: Thompson can get from zero to 60, which is nice, but can also revert back to zero within a week, if not within a quarter. There was only one solid two-week stretch of play, against Troy and Western Kentucky; the rest of Thompson’s season was defined either by extended periods of mediocrity – if not a touch worse – or by disappointing follow-ups to strong performances.

Can he be the leader of this offense? I think he can; again, this is due to his increased comfort level playing under Canales. I wouldn’t list Thompson among the top four quarterbacks in the Sun Belt, but he’s absolutely good enough to lead U.N.T. into bowl play. There is a depth issue, however, and the Mean Green should be worried about the health of this offense if Thompson goes down to injury. Former JUCO transfer Brent Osborn is the likely backup, though sophomore Andrew McNulty started last October’s game against Tulsa in Thompson’s stead.

There’s a slightly similar story in place at wide receiver: solid along the starting lineup, but with depth issues as you work down the two-deep. The Mean Green return their top three at the position in junior Brelan Chancellor (team-best 37 receptions for 457 yards) and seniors Christopher Bynes (37 for 442 and 5 scores) and Ivan Delgado (27 for 305), but desperately need two or three unproven underclassmen to fill out the rotation. As U.N.T. left spring ball, the three backup spots were held by junior Lynrick Pleasant, sophomore Derrick Teegarden and redshirt freshman Chaz Sampson – there’s one career reception among the three. Sampson might be the most intriguing receiver on the roster, thanks to his size, but Chancellor is the difference-maker: not only is he growing into a big-play role as U.N.T.’s inside receiver, but Chancellor has shown an ability to alter field position in the return game.

The role of the tight ends should continue to grow in 2012. Since the position went unused in the previous offensive system, McCarney inherited zero tight ends upon his arrival. Andrew Power, a JUCO transfer brought in to be the starter, ended up making 16 receptions for 142 yards; his backup, Drew Miller, added 6 grabs for 105 yards. While Power is the stronger blocker, Miller and converted quarterback Cooper Jones might help U.N.T. stretch the middle of the field.

Not many teams need to replace the most productive running back in school history: North Texas is one, along with Oregon, Western Kentucky and Utah State, off the top of my head. The Mean Green won’t be able to replace Dunbar’s production with one player, of course, so the offense will instead turn the ball over to a committee of backs. One is junior Brandin Byrd (83 yards), the only returning back to notch double-digit carries in 2011. Another is Jeremy Brown, a former walk-on with more speed than Byrd. U.N.T. also has a pair of redshirt freshmen in the mix with ZacWhitfield and Antoinne Jimmerson, so look for a quartet of backs to share the wealth. One thing to remember: Dunbar was a great back, but North Texas rushed for 1,892 yards as a team last fall – 66th-most in the country. It’s entirely possible that a by-committee approach boosts that total.

Seeing the Mean Green mount an improved pass rush after years of struggles getting to the quarterback was a wonderful sign for this defense, and one we should have seen it coming: McCarney was going to be very hands-on with the defensive line, and given his pedigree, an improvement was coming sooner, not later. U.N.T. made 26.0 sacks as a team last fall, tied for 52nd nationally, after combining for 30.0 sacks over the previous two years. Even if the defense remains a sticking point for the Mean Green, that the pass rush made such a drastic improvement last fall bodes well for its future under McCarney and Skladany.

And the latter is an upgrade over Bowen, with all due respect to U.N.T.’s former coordinator. As with McCarney up front, Skladany will take a strong interest in U.N.T.’s linebackers; he’ll coach this position in addition to his coordinator duties. Skladany will like junior middle linebacker Zachary Orr (74 tackles, 7.0 for loss), who led the team in tackles last fall despite missing the final three games of the season. Orr is one of a few defenders with a promising future: he’s been a fixture in the rotation since stepping on campus, even making 60 tackles as a freshman despite making only a single start. Orr will be flanked at outside linebacker by senior Jeremy Phillips (21 tackles ), who missed six games last fall with a knee injury, and junior Will Wright (31 tackles, 2.5 for loss). One option not at Skladany’s disposal is would-be sophomore Michael Stojkovic, who recently left the program.

Stojkovic’s departure stings in three ways: one, he might have been the Mean Green’s second-best linebacker, behind Orr; two, he had significant potential; and three, his departure means that U.N.T. can’t afford to move Wright back to safety, which might have been an option. Wright began his career as a defensive back before being transitioned down to linebacker last fall, meaning that if the option was there, McCarney and Skladany could have used him in the secondary. Why is this worth discussing? Because North Texas lost all four starters off of a defensive backfield that was already among the nation’s worst – which raises the question of whether U.N.T. can do a worse job defending the pass than it did last fall.

It’s impossible to predict. On one hand, the secondary probably can’t be any worse. The Mean Green allowed less than 200 yards only three times last fall; those three opponents averaged 172.3 rushing yards per game, so it wasn’t as if the defense put the clamps down altogether. On the other hand, there’s an absolute dearth of experience among the returning defensive backs. Could the new group be worse than the last? I doubt it. But they can be just as awful.

Depth at cornerback took a major hit following would-be starter Freddie Warner’s A.C.L. injury during the spring. His status for 2012 is now in doubt, leaving U.N.T. to pass the baton to either JUCO transfer D.Q. Johnson or one of five incoming freshmen, at least two of whom – Devante Davis and Xavier Kelly – seem poised to begin at cornerback. The coaching staff is very high on both Davis and Kelly, so it’s not out of the question that two freshmen start at the position. This isn’t a great situation. The starting safeties will be former Oklahoma transfer Marcus Trice, an undersized fireplug of a tackler, and former special teams contributor Lairamie Lee.

The only way that North Texas can bail out this question mark of a secondary is to take another step forward in rushing the quarterback. And this defense will need to do so without end Brandon Akpunku, the team leader in sacks as a senior. His spot will be filled by senior K.C. Obi (20 tackles), a past starter who will team with  Brandon McCoy (44 tackles, 4.5 sacks) — a former tackle who moved to end last fall — to form the Mean Green’s starting end pairing. The defense returns both starting tackles in Ryan Boutwell (28 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Tevinn Canty (17 tackles, 4.0 for loss), but Canty may lose his starting role to junior Richard Abbe, who had a nice spring. As in the secondary, the line will add an influx of talent over the summer: five incoming freshmen will also battle for snaps.

Position battle(s) to watch

Offensive line Put it this way: the offensive line is in a far better place today than it was at this point a season ago. And the line is years removed from its status as an annual sticking-point under Dodge, thanks to a recharged dedication to a physical running game and the nice job McCarney’s staff has done in developing several youthful starters and reserves. But even with four returning starters and several backups back in the fold, the line remains a work in progress. Three of the four returning starters are only sophomores: left tackle Antonio Johnson, left guard Mason Y’Barbo and right guard Cyril Lemon. While undoubtedly talented – Lemon in particular seems like a future all-conference pick – it’s only natural to view this trio as a year away from reaching its potential.

There’s a void at right tackle following the loss of all-Sun Belt pick Matt Tomlinson. The Mean Green’s best option at tackle might be junior LaChris Anyiam, though I wonder if he has the strength to handle the running game on the strong side. While senior Coleman Feeley tops the current depth chart, his past battles with injuries makes him somewhat unreliable. If I were North Texas, I’d try out former Arkansas transfer Cam Feldt at right tackle; now at left guard, he has the strength to be anchor on first down.

It’ll be on senior center Aaron Fortenberry to lend a steadying hand to this still-growing line. A contributor since his freshman season, Fortenberry found a home in the middle after swapping between center and guard over the last three years. The bad news – though it’s not that terrible, to be honest – is that the line should start only one senior; the good news is that you’d likely want your only senior to be at center. The line will be better in 2013 than it is this fall.

Game(s) to watch

North Texas must continue to win games at home. But the season will be defined by how the Mean Green fare in the four Sun Belt road games: Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee State, Louisiana-Monroe and Western Kentucky. The latter game is particularly important, seeing that in comes in the season finale against a Western Kentucky team primed for another breakthrough season.

Season breakdown & prediction

In a nutshell Start by addressing this team’s specific issues before moving to two bigger, more wide-ranging factors. The offense will only go as far as the running game takes it; while Thompson is growing into a nice Sun Belt quarterback, as noted earlier, this offense clearly needs a strong running game to be successful. With no proven running backs on the roster and an offensive line still one year away from reaching its potential, it’s only natural to view the entire offense as a question mark heading into the summer. If he takes a big step forward, Thompson might be able to put the Mean Green on his shoulders – but it’s far too early in the game to predict such a scenario to occur. There are things to like about this defense: the pass rush took a great step forward last fall, for starters, and Skladany should do a nice job at coordinator. But this secondary is so underwhelming – at cornerback in particular – as to negate any potential strengths the Mean Green hold along the front seven. Here, more than anywhere else, U.N.T. is going to need freshmen to step right up and play beyond their youth. Now, consider two big-picture factors. The first: North Texas is certainly getting better under McCarney, but it’s too soon to think of this team as bowl-worthy, or as a Sun Belt leader. This team’s goal should be further improvement while the program as a whole prepares for the upcoming conference swap. Secondly: Arkansas State – despite the coaching change – Louisiana-Lafayette, Florida International and Western Kentucky are farther along in the process. U.N.T. doesn’t quite match up with that group both in personnel and scheme – meaning the Mean Green aren’t as well-versed in this new system as those conference rivals are in theirs. While it would be nice for North Texas to end its Sun Belt run atop the league, I doubt that comes to pass.

Dream season North Texas goes from five wins to the top of Sun Belt, thanks to key wins over Louisiana-Lafayette and Western Kentucky. The Mean Green return to bowl play for the first time since 2004, setting a nice tone for the program heading into its move to Conference USA.

Nightmare season The Mean Green go 1-3 in non-conference play, as expected, but also open Sun Belt action with two ugly losses to Troy and Florida Atlantic. While U.N.T. wins a third straight over Middle Tennessee State and trounces South Alabama, the program’s Sun Belt era ends in a 3-9 season.

In case you were wondering

Where do North Texas fans congregate? Begin your search with Go Mean Green, continue with Inside North Texas and finish with the Web site of the Denton Record Chronicle. Go in any order you’d like, actually.

North Texas’ all-name nominee RB Konockus Sashington.

Word Count

Through 23 teams 76,545.

Up Next

Who is No. 101? The athletic director at tomorrow’s university once served as the offensive coordinator for a coach whose son is currently a coordinator in the Big Ten.

David Cutcliffe has already had a better career at Duke than Ted Roof, Carl Franks, Barry Goldsmith and Barry Wilson, even if Goldsmith was responsible for the program’s last winning season, way back in 1994. These coaches, including Cutcliffe, make up the A.S.S. era of Duke — the period After Steve Spurrier, and excuse the vulgarity. Cutcliffe has brought respectability to the Blue Devils, winning games at a better clip than each of his five predecessors, but for this program, respectability comes with an asterisk. Cutcliffe might be 15-33 over his four years with the program, averaging just shy of four wins per season, and in this day and age, that’s marvelous. Is it good enough for Duke — meaning, does Duke think that another head coach might be able to do more? It’s an interesting question, and one only the university can answer. From where I’m standing, however, I’d give a coach who can flirt with five wins every season a lifetime contract.

Last year’s prediction

The defense is not up to par, and that’s why Duke is at best a borderline bowl team in 2011. The defensive line is particularly poor, though the pass rush might improve if these young ends are ready – but I don’t think they are. The front seven as a whole is a tremendous question mark, even though the secondary has potential. Take that and add a tough schedule and you have the makings of a five-win team at best, in my mind. I know I thought Duke was ready last fall, but I was clearly off. Now I think we’re a year away.

2011 recap

In a nutshell Duke lost to an F.C.S. team and didn’t win a game after the first of October. That’s the season, in a nutshell. Neither of those facts are new to this program; the Blue Devils have lost three games to Richmond since 2006 and have only one post-October win over Cutcliffe’s four seasons with the program. Looking beyond the standings – Duke won only three games for the second straight year – the most disappointing aspect of last season was the steep decline on offense. The Blue Devils had increased their scoring total in each of Cutcliffe’s first three seasons, including back-to-back 300-point seasons from 2009-10. That total dropped to 270 points last fall, the second-fewest in the A.C.C. – ahead of only Boston College, and beating the Eagles in anything was nothing to write home about. That the defense took a step forward was lost in the shuffle, not to mention meaningless: Duke simply didn’t score enough points.

High point Duke’s three wins: at Boston College, home against Tulane and at Florida International. The last qualifies as the Blue Devils’ best win on the year. The Eagles were a dumpster fire last fall, though I wonder if Duke could have won that game had the two met in November, not September.

Low point Duke ran out of steam after two close-but-no-cigar home losses to Wake Forest (24-23) and Virginia Tech (14-10) to end October. That dropped Duke under .500 heading into November, and the season’s final month has long been unkind to the Blue Devils.

Tidbit As late as in the 2008 season, there were four F.B.S. head coaches with direct ties to Bear Bryant, having either played for him or, in one case, served as a student assistant as an undergraduate. That number has dropped to two as we head into September: Cutcliffe and Mike Riley. The latter played defensive back at Alabama from 1971-74 while Cutcliffe, at roughly the same time, was one of Alabama’s student assistants. Sylvester Croom, who played center at Alabama in the mid-1970s, was fired at Mississippi State following the 2008 season. Former Florida Atlantic head coach Howard Schnellenberger, who retired last December, played tight end under Bryant at Kentucky in the 1950s.

Tidbit (academics edition) Not that this is necessarily surprising, given the university’s reputation, but Duke did lead the A.C.C. last fall with 19 players on the conference’s all-academic team. And it wasn’t close: Clemson and Wake Forest came in second with five selections, ahead of Georgia Tech and Maryland, which had four apiece. What was surprising? That the only school with less than two players on the all-academic team was Virginia, which has a strong academic reputation of its own.

Tidbit (November edition) Duke’s lone November win under Cutcliffe came in a 55-45 victory over Virginia on Nov. 6, 2010. Overall, the program is 1-12 under Cutcliffe over the final month of the regular season, bottoming out with an 0-5 mark in 2008, his first year with the program – though North Carolina later vacated its win, if that helps. Duke is 4-39 in November since the 2000 season, with wins over Georgia Tech and Tar Heels in 2003, Clemson in 2004 and the Cavaliers two years ago.

Former players in the N.F.L.

4 S Matt Daniels (St. Louis), QB Thaddeus Lewis (Cleveland), LS Patrick Mannelly (Chicago), WR Eron Riley (New York Jets).

Arbitrary top five list

Former A.C.C. quarterbacks currently in the N.F.L.
1. Philip Rivers, N.C. State (San Diego).
2. Matt Ryan, Boston College (Atlanta).
3. Matt Schaub, Virginia (Houston).
4. Shaun Hill, Maryland (Detroit).
5. Christian Ponder, Florida State (Minnesota).

Coaching

David Cutcliffe (Alabama ’76), 15-33 after four seasons at Duke. He improved Duke’s win total in each of his first two seasons, laying the ground work for an expected — by me, at least — return to bowl play in 2010. That didn’t happen, which was disappointing, as was last fall’s three-win finish. Nevertheless, it should be noted that Cutcliffe’s 15 wins over four years marks the program’s best stretch since Spurrier. His career mark, which includes parts of seven seasons at Ole Miss, is 59-60. Though he earned national praise for the job he did at Mississippi, Cutcliffe is most well-known for his long association with the University of Tennessee, where he spent 19 seasons as an assistant. That stretch began in 1982, when Cutcliffe started as a part-time assistant coach, and continued through 1998. After being fired from Ole Miss in 2004, health issues forced him to take one year off from coaching; he was hired to be Charlie Weis’s first quarterbacks coach at Notre Dame before stepping down before the start of the season. In 2006 Cutcliffe returned to Tennessee for a two-year stint before being tabbed as Duke’s next head coach. With the Volunteers, Cutcliffe spent six seasons as the tight ends coach (1983-88), a single season coaching the running backs (1989) and three as the quarterbacks coach (1990-92) before being promoted to the offensive coordinator spot, where he earned the well-deserved reputation as one of the nation’s best game-planners and play-callers. At Ole Miss, Cutcliffe finished a winning record in each of his first five seasons, including a 10-win 2003 season highlighted by a SEC West co-championship and a Cotton Bowl win. Cutcliffe can coach, we know that. But it takes a special kind of coach to win at Duke.

Players to watch

One area where Sean Renfree has already improved is in his ability to avoid the shield-your-eyes sort of performances that littered his 2010 season, his first as Duke’s starting quarterback. Then a sophomore, Renfree had five multiple-interception games, including four over a five-game stretch over the season’s first half. It’s not a stretch to say that his penchant for turnovers cost Duke more than one win: Renfree tossed three in a 54-48 loss to Wake Forest, another three in a 14-point loss to Army, five in a loss to Miami (Fla.) and a pair in a season-ending loss to North Carolina.

But steady progression was made over the second half of the 2010 season, in terms of limiting turnovers, and by and large, Renfree stayed error-free as a junior. He cut six interceptions of his 2010 total, suffering through only one multiple-turnover game — though Renfree did toss at least one pick in each of Duke’s last seven losses. He’ll need to continue growing as a decision-maker, cutting down further on his interceptions, but Renfree was absolutely better as a junior than as a sophomore, as expected. What can he do as a senior?

He can lead this offense back to its 2009-10 level, if not to greater heights — perhaps, if his teammates can join the party, to the program’s highest point total since 1994. Earlier this month, Cutcliffe touted Renfree as an N.F.L. prospect; I don’t doubt that point, even if his lack of all-conference production to this point has Renfree coming in under the radar. What Renfree has: strong accuracy, a nice rapport with his receivers, growing confidence, enviable experience and one of the best quarterback tutors in college football. All he lacks is help: Renfree is a strong college quarterback, but he can’t lift Duke into bowl play on his own.

It’s not so much that Duke can’t run the ball as it won’t, or can’t afford to. Not to imply that Duke has a Virginia Tech-like running game — not even close — but Cutcliffe could stand to turn to the running game with a bit more frequency, in turn taking pressure off of Renfree. Oftentimes, however, Duke needs to throw in order to hang in games against A.C.C. competition: the Blue Devils had more than 30 carries as a team only three times during conference play. When Duke does decide to run the football, it will turn to the pairing of junior Juwan Thompson (457 yards, 4.2 yards per carry) and senior Desmond Scott (367 yards, 5.2 yards per carry), the team’s leading rushers over the past two years. This offense also has a pair of quarterbacks, sophomore Anthony Boone and junior Brandon Connette, with strong running ability — though Boone took many of Connette’s carries last fall.

Duke lost offensive line coach Matt Luke to Mississippi in late March, forcing Cutcliffe into his only staffing change of the offseason. Luke was replaced by former Akron offensive coordinator John Latina, who served as the Rebels’ line coach under Cutcliffe from 1999-2004. Latina will take on an experienced group, not to mention Duke’s deepest line of the Cutcliffe era — the Blue Devils have steadily increased depth with each passing recruiting class. Duke returns four full-time starters and another three linemen with past starting experience, including junior right tackle Perry Simmons, a starter since his freshman season. The strong side of the line, with Simmons joined by sophomore right guard Laken Tomlinson, is in fairly secure hands. Even with increased numbers and experience, the rest of the line needs some work.

The Blue Devils need to settle matters at center after using a revolving door at the position last fall. If he can remain healthy, senior Brian Moore — the former starter at right guard — can give the Blue Devils some much-needed consistency in the middle of the line: he missed nine games last fall with an arm injury, forcing the line to shuffle as a result. If Moore can remain on the field, Duke can move junior Dave Harding out to left guard and use junior John Coleman as a valuable swing reserve at both tackle and along the interior. Sophomore Takoby Cofield is a logical replacement for left tackle Kyle Hill, the lone lost starter. This line should be Duke’s best, but it’ll still be overmatched against the number of wonderful defensive fronts in the A.C.C. — Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson and the like.

Just think: It could have been worse. Duke already needs to replace nose guard Charlie Hatcher and safety Matt Daniels — the latter the nation’s most under-recognized defensive back — but the Blue Devils nearly lost end Kenny Anunike, who suffered a season-ending knee injury four games into last season. Anunike landed a fifth season of eligibility from the N.C.A.A. in January, allowing him to return in 2012; he landed another hardship waiver in March, thanks to an injury suffered during his true freshman season in 2008, so Anunike will be in Durham through the 2013 season. That’s wonderful news for Duke, even if Anunike needs to prove he’s recovered after last season’s injury, not to mention prove that he can remain injury-free.

At the time of his injury on Sept. 24, Anunike was leading the A.C.C. in sacks. Even having played in only parts of four games, he still lead the Blue Devils with 4.0 sacks; no other teammate had more than 2.0, and the team as a whole made 17.0 sacks on the year. So he’s a big-time player, and the key to the whole deal for this defense in 2012. If Anunike returns to full health, he’ll change the way the Blue Devils get to the quarterback. A strong pass rush will help offset this defense’s many issues elsewhere, perhaps allowing Duke to make another subtle improvement after cutting more than a field goal off its 2010 scoring average a year ago.

There is no senior defensive lineman on the roster, if we count Anunike as a junior. In addition, one of Anunike’s running mates at end, Jordan Dewalt-Ondijo (17 tackles), was likewise held out of spring ball due to a lingering injury. One of the positives to Anunike’s injury last fall was the playing time it gave to a batch of then-freshmen, like Dewalt-Ondijo, Dezmond Johnson and Jamal Wallace, who join junior Justin Foxx and Anunike in completing Duke’s top quintet at the position. The group as whole will be better in 2012, if still at least a year away from reaching their potential.

Hatcher, a three-year starter, leaves a big hole in the middle of the line. With junior Sydney Sarmiento (32 tackles, 1.5 for loss) entrenched at tackle, the Blue Devils desperately need a big, run-stuffing presence at nose guard. Even with Hatcher, Duke’s run defense crumbled over the second half of last season. The Blue Devils have big bodies at their disposal in sophomores Steven Ingram, Will Bryant and Jamal Bruce, but the lack of experience is a tremendous concern. Even if Anunike makes a healthy return, it’s hard not to view Duke’s defensive line as the A.C.C.’s worst.

Every linebacker who made a start last fall in Duke’s 4-2-5 defense returns in 2012. The group’s best, Kelby Brown (65 tackles, 7.0 for loss) and Austin Gamble (43 tackles, 5.5 for loss), have shown some disruptive ability. But they’re often hamstrung by a defensive line that doesn’t lend much assistance against the run, and could certainly use stronger play along the interior of the line. They still produce, which reflects well on this pair. Duke also brings back sophomores C.J. France (23 tackles) and David Helton (25 tackles, 2.5 for loss), each of whom made spot starts at freshmen. There’s your present and your future: Brown and Gamble may hold it down today, but France and Helton are the next in line. This isn’t a great group, but the Blue Devils have some nice potential along the second level.

Daniels should be considered the finest defensive back in Duke’s history, if not one of the finest defensive players in school history, if not one of the finest players in school history regardless of position. Imagine Duke’s defense over the last two or three years without Daniels cleaning up mess after mess against both the run and the pass, if you dare. It’s a scary premise. The line is thrown around too often, but in this case, it’s true: Duke cannot replace Daniels. No way, no how. He’s irreplaceable.

But one way that Cutcliffe hopes to replace Daniels’ production is by moving receiver Brandon Braxton (40 receptions for 352 yards) over to safety. You don’t move your second-most productive receiver — especially with that being a questionable position for the Blue Devils — over to defense without eyeballing him as a starter, so it stands to reason that Braxton will step right into a major role in the secondary. Braxton will thus join returning starters Walt Canty (87 tackles), Jordan Byas (40 tackles) and August Campbell at safety, though one player will get squeezed out of the starting lineup.

That’s some nice depth, however. Campbell dealt with injury issues during the spring, perhaps giving Byas a chance to cement a starting role. Both will see the field, even if we say that Braxton is a sure starter next to Canty — the latter takes on a leadership role in this secondary and on the defense as a whole. The starting cornerbacks should be Tony Foster and Luke Cockrell, with Foster claiming a full-time role following Johnny Williams’ graduation.

Position(s) to watch

Wide receivers Renfree has developed a wonderful relationship with Conner Vernon at receiver, though like his quarterback, Vernon could use some help. Vernon (70 receptions for 956 yards and 6 touchdowns) enters his senior season right on the doorstep of the A.C.C. record book: he needs 35 more catches to break former Clemson receiver Aaron Kelly’s career record and another 843 yards to break Peter Warrick’s record for receiving yards. Vernon and Renfree, though unheralded, might form the best quarterback-receiving pairing in the conference. But the Blue Devils are hurting for proven depth after losing Donovan Varner and tight end Cooper Helfet to graduation; there are only seven receivers on the roster altogether, though two, including Vernon, made at least 10 receptions last fall.

In a way, you have to trust in Cutcliffe’s faith in his returning receivers. Why else would Duke have moved Braxton, the team’s fourth-leading receiver, over to the defensive side of the ball? With Braxton now a safety, the Blue Devils will rely on sophomores Jamison Crowder (14 for 163) and Blair Holliday to take some pressure off of Vernon in the passing game. This pair constitutes one part of a fresh-faced receiver corps — outside of Vernon, of course — that includes wholly unproven targets like Nick Hill, Jack Wise, Corey Gattis and Brandon Watkins.

In addition, Duke signed a pair of true freshmen in February who might be able to squeeze into the rotation. Only Vernon saves this group from being a disaster. Even with one of the most prolific passers in A.C.C. history, this is one of the weakest receiver corps in the conference. You wish Renfree had a bit more at this disposal.

Game(s) to watch

Duke needs to win games in September, because few teams will face a tougher slate over the year’s final two months. September’s schedule includes a Sun Belt team – one Duke beat a year ago – a team from the F.C.S. and Memphis. Each of Duke’s last eight opponents won at least six games last fall; five of the eight won at least eight games; and two, Virginia Tech and Clemson, met last December for the A.C.C. championship.

Tidbit (U.N.C. edition) Duke has not met rival U.N.C. in October since World War II. The two played twice in 1943 – Duke won both games – presumably due to the fact that Virginia Tech disbanded its football program during the war years. The Blue Devils and Tar Heels have played at some point between Nov. 7 and Nov. 27 in each season since. Not so in 2012: Duke and U.N.C. meet on Oct. 20, in the seventh game of the regular season.

Season breakdown & prediction

In a nutshell The bowl-less streak continues if Duke doesn’t beat Florida International in the season opener. The run of three-win seasons continues if the Blue Devils don’t have three wins by the end of September. The program’s first double-digit loss season since Ted Roof is in play if, somehow, Duke loses to both F.I.U. and Memphis before turning to A.C.C. play. The lack of optimism is largely due to a factor outside of the Blue Devils’ control: the conference schedule. Simply put, Duke will be lucky to win two games in A.C.C. action. Each of the eight teams in conference play reached bowl eligibility last fall; even if two, U.N.C. and Miami, take a step back, this is still a whale of a gauntlet for Duke to face, especially with the team’s own issues. If the schedule alone isn’t enough cause for a pessimistic outlook, the Blue Devils do have concerns of their own to address. Begin with a dearth of options in the passing game beyond Vernon — who’s terrific, but not good enough to do it on his own. Continue with the annual lack of a running game, and continue with a deeper yet still unproven offensive line. The defense continues to improve after bottoming out in 2010, yet remains far removed from the middle of the A.C.C., let alone the league’s best. Three things we can say with almost certainty: Duke isn’t winning a game on the road; Duke isn’t winning a game in November; and there are only three games on this schedule — F.I.U., N.C. Central and Memphis — where you can say that Duke should either be favored or have a good chance at victory. Cutcliffe may get this team to four wins, which would be great, but the Blue Devils remains entrenched at or near the bottom of the A.C.C. — again.

Dream season Not only does Duke start strong, winning five of its first six, but it also beats U.N.C. in October and Georgia Tech and Miami (Fla.) in November. Eight wins, a program-best since 1994.

Nightmare season At the least the Blue Devils dispatch their F.C.S. opponent, unlike last year. And they beat Memphis. But that’s all.

In case you were wondering

Where do Duke fans congregate? There are a number of options out there to talk to Duke sports, though more than a few are focused mainly on the university’s basketball team. Still, if you’re interested, check out Duke Report, Devils Illustrated and The Devils Den. As always, drop a comment with any blogs, message boards and local beat reporters that I may have missed.

Duke’s all-name nominee QB Mackenzie Sovereign.

Word Count

Through 22 teams 73,068.

Up Next

Who is No. 102? Tomorrow’s university is one of two in its home city, joining a school with one of the nation’s most dominant gymnastics programs.

There’s a preview coming today, but not until later in the morning. For now, while I plug away – and since we’re more than 20 teams down – let’s update the current F.B.S. all-name team. If you hadn’t noticed, the all-name nominee is a new addition to the second-to-last section in this year’s previews. The rules are simple: only one nominee per team. I’ll continue adding players regardless of position through the first 62 teams, I guess, before beginning to search for players who match positions of need. I can already tell that it’s going to be harder to fill spots at quarterback, kicker and punter; looking back, it might have been a better idea to list quarterback Duke DeLancellotti with Texas State instead of safety Brixx Hawthorne.

But still… Brixx. Sounds like a Swedish toy company. Or a cereal that contains 200 percent of your daily allowance of fiber. Or an inexpensive but ultimately worthless automobile built somewhere in Eastern Europe. Or…

With 21 teams down, we’re just shy of a full two-deep, if we had players at each position. With 25 spots to be filled – 12 on offense with two receivers, a fullback and a tight end; 11 on defense, though I guess going with four linebackers is an option; and a kicker and punter – the end result would average out to roughly five players per position. That’s if every position ends up having an equal amount, which they won’t. Here’s the current list, with the current starter underlined when a position has more than one option:

Quarterback
Driphus Jackson, Rice

Running back
Brandon Bourbon, Kansas

Fullback
None

Wide receiver
Efeoghene Scott-Emuakpor, Ball State

Wide receiver
Wilson Van Hooser, Tulane

Tight end
Rob Blanchflower, Massachusetts
Charles Love III, Indiana
Harley Scioneaux, Louisiana-Monroe

Offensive tackle
Carlton Falconer, Florida Atlantic

Offensive guard
None

Center
None

Offensive guard
None

Offensive tackle
Brander Craighead, UTEP

Defensive end
Maxx Forde, Idaho
KevinJo Atkins, New Mexico

Defensive tackle
Dajour Morris, Akron

Defensive tackle
None

Defensive end
Jose Casanova, U.A.B.

Linebacker
Bronterrious Jakes, Memphis

Linebacker
Wonderful Monds, Buffalo

Linebacker
Golden Ekeanyanwu, Colorado State

Cornerback
Xavier Archangel, Texas-San Antonio

Safety
Brixx Hawthorne, Texas State

Safety
Juno Prudhomm, Middle Tennessee State

Cornerback
Sir’Vegias Steele, South Alabama
Justice Sarcedo, U.N.L.V.

Kicker
None

Punter
None

While the head coach and staff of assistants on the all-name team remain to be decided, it’s probably a safe bet that the squad will be led by Bronco Mendenhall. Major Applewhite would be a shoo-in for offensive coordinator, but even if he’s listed as the co-coordinator in Austin, I don’t think he qualifies. He will be the running backs coach, however.