Pre-Snap Read

By the Numbers

Battleground States: Mid-Atlantic

By Ryan Myerberg   //   May 21, 2010

As you exit off the south end of the miserable stretch of road known as the New Jersey Turnpike, pass through the Lilliputian state of Delaware and get onto I-95 South, you begin to enter the recruiting Bermuda Triangle. Why do I say that? The three states of Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina make up this odd cluster that has totally fallen off the radar in the recruiting discussion. Clearly they’re not far enough west for the Big Ten folks to care, not far enough south for the rabid S.E.C. fan to pay much attention, and the Northeast… well, that’s a story for another day. This Mid-Atlantic trio, while boasting 60 percent of the teams of the A.C.C., get very little attention. This leads me to my first admission: I am graduate of the University of Virginia, so I may insert some personal anecdotes and moments of shame that I’ve felt since becoming an alumni of that fine University when it comes to the football program. Good. Now that we have that out of the way, let’s start talking shop. Those readers from Maryland are in charge of bringing the Natty Boh.

Virginia

I figure it’s only right to start with the state that causes me so much pain when it comes to recruiting. Paul was kind enough to give me 100 words to vent about the Cavaliers in last year’s Countdown preview of Virginia; here’s a bit of what I had to say:

“The sad fact of the matter is that U.V.A. is now a bottom-tier program in the A.C.C. That won’t change until the program closes the recruiting borders surrounding the state, develops an explosive (I’d even settle for efficient) offense and decides that a seven-win season is not, in fact, something to hang your hat on.”

I know, I know. Not very nice. But I meant every word of it, dammit, and no part more than the issue surrounding the recruiting woes of the Cavaliers.

What’s happened in the Commonwealth since 2006?  Virginia is another state — along with previously reviewed Michigan, Alabama, Utah and others — that has two significant football programs. (Paul’s note: One significant football program.) The state produced 55 four- or five-star recruits over the past five years, according to Rivals.com, a large portion from the fertile Hampton Roads area, as well as Richmond. Of those 55, only 22 have inked with the Hokies or Cavaliers, or 40 percent. A host of top programs, such as Alabama, Florida, Southern California and others, have made inroads in the area.  Virginia’s per capita number for top-rated recruits is also impressive: one for every 143,320 members of the state, putting them in the top 10 for all states reviewed to this point.

Virginia also stands out in recruiting for this fact: along with New York (albeit to a much larger degree), Virginia has a number of programs in-state that provide prep years for academically challenged high schoolers to improve their grades before heading off to play college football. Fork Union and Hargreave Academy are among the most prominent. Many of these kids sign with an F.B.S. school out of high school, don’t qualify academically, and are placed at a prep school for a year to get their grades in order before heading off to their college choice.

However, not every kid ends up attending the school they pledge to out of high school. I went back to 2006 to see how many kids who went to prep school verbally committed to one school yet eventually, after a single season on the prep ranks, signed with a different university. Twenty-seven athletes fit this criteria, though only one chose to attend an in-state school, in this case Virginia Tech. (Paul’s note: Shocking.) I’d like to use this as an example for how poorly Tech and U.V.A. have done keeping in-state talent at home, but it doesn’t really hold much water as an argument. Most of these prep school recruits are limited academically, meaning there are really only a handful of schools that have the ability — the lenient admission standards — to admit kids of this nature. U.V.A., and to a lesser degree Virginia Tech, don’t fit that bill.

Maryland

Maryland: America in Miniature. Or so it’s said. The state is even better at producing top talent than Virginia, with one four- or five-star recruit for every 126,655 people; that total ranks among the very best in the nation. Unfortunately for Terps fans, that’s where the good news ends. The University of Maryland has a worse winning percentage in recruiting battles than the bottom-feeding 2010 Orioles; a 25 percent success rate, versus 32 percent for the O’s.

In fact, Maryland only managed to ink one more four- or five-state recruit in the past five years — 11 in all — than Penn State plucked away from the Chesapeake State over the same period. It’s hard to give Ralph Friedgen the benefit of the doubt here; the Terrapins have been mostly bereft of top talent in recent years, a factor that contributed greatly to last year’s 2-10 finish. Not to take anything away from the three consecutive 10-win seasons that the Friedgen-led Terps experienced from 2001-3, but more recent Maryland team could certainly have used a number of the names that got away. Joe Haden? Ben Tate? Navorro Bowman? Yeah, Maryland could have used those guys.

North Carolina

Last but not least in this recruiting Bermuda Triangle is North Carolina, home to four A.C.C. programs: Duke, U.N.C., N.C. State and Wake Forest. Duke and Wake are outliers; with such high academic requirements, they are forced to recruit differently than the Tarheels and Wolfpack. Wake, in no uncertain terms, has embraced this and succeeded in the situation they have found themselves in. Duke? Well, not so much. The future of the Duke program looks bright, however, and I have little doubt that David Cutcliffe will make the Blue Devils as competitive in the A.C.C. as Jim Grobe has made the Demon Deacons.

How about success in recruiting? The aforementioned in-state schools have done relatively well in keeping talent around. All told, 47 percent of North Carolina’s four- or five-star talent stayed home, with U.N.C. keeping 65 percent of that total, 15 in all. Wake and Duke each kept one, and N.C. State the balance, with eight.

It’s no surprise to me, therefore, that U.N.C. is on the ascendancy, while N.C. State is lagging. Butch Davis has made his reputation on strong recruiting, and has dominated his in-state rivals when attacking some of the area’s top recruits. Davis has also surrounded himself with top recruiters; John Blake, former head coach of Oklahoma, is one of those. On a per capita basis, North Carolina lags behind Maryland and Virginia with one top recruit for every 191,477 residents. It’s interesting to note that only nine other programs nationally managed to grab kids out of North Carolina, with South Carolina and Clemson co-leaders among them, taking six recruits each.

Tags: Duke, Maryland, N.C. State, North Carolina, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

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